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An Illustration of Matrix Formulation for a Probabilistic Risk‐Assessment Study

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  • Selim Sancaktar

Abstract

A matrix formulation is described and numerically illustrated to calculate the public risk and identify the dominant contributors to it arising from the operation of a nuclear power plant. The matrix methodology is used as a superstructure in a probabilistic risk‐assessment study to organize the calculated probabilities and to facilitate the analysis and documentation effort. The matrix structure is built to manipulate the large amount of data arising from event and fault‐tree analysis and other supporting analyses. It lends itself easily to computerization and provides an analytic capability to identify dominant contributors to risk. It is a useful tool for aiding sensitivity analyses and also a potential formalism for standardization of risk‐assessment studies. This tool is already used in the two recent comprehensive nuclear power plant risk‐assessment efforts, the Zion and Indian Point Safety Studies.

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  • Selim Sancaktar, 1982. "An Illustration of Matrix Formulation for a Probabilistic Risk‐Assessment Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 137-147, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:2:y:1982:i:3:p:137-147
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01376.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan, 1982. "Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear‐Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 9-18, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.

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