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Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear‐Risk Analysis

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  • Stanley Kaplan

Abstract

It is pointed out that the familiar analytical device of “event tree”, widely used in risk analysis, can be viewed as a transition matrix expressing the likelihood of going from “entry states” to “exit states”. This point of view is shown to have numerous interesting conceptual and computational features which promise to make it a very useful addition to the arsenal of tools for risk analysis. The basic idea is explained first in terms of a simple, made‐up example. The application of the idea to a very real and complicated problem, nuclear‐plant risk assessment, is then outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Kaplan, 1982. "Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear‐Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 9-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:2:y:1982:i:1:p:9-18
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01398.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Selim Sancaktar, 1982. "An Illustration of Matrix Formulation for a Probabilistic Risk‐Assessment Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 137-147, September.
    2. Joan K. Plastiras, 1986. "Intersystem Common Cause Analysis of a Diesel Generator Failure," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 463-476, December.
    3. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.
    4. Stephen D. Unwin, 1984. "Binary Event String Analysis: A Compact Numerical Representation of the Event Tree," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 83-87, June.
    5. Ronald L. Iman, 1987. "A Matrix‐Based Approach to Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Fault Trees," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 21-33, March.
    6. Stan Kaplan & Harold F. Perla & Dennis C. Bley, 1983. "A Methodology for Seismic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3), pages 169-180, September.
    7. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton & Jay D. Johnson, 1990. "A Methodology for Grouping Source Terms for Consequence Calculations in Probabilistic Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 507-520, December.
    8. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1991. "The Repeatability of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses for Complex Probabilistic Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 591-606, December.

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