IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v29y2009i4p601-611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao‐Wei Lin
  • Chin‐Tsang Chiang
  • Tai‐Hwa Shih
  • Yan‐Nian Jiang
  • Chin‐Cheng Chou

Abstract

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven‐hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao‐Wei Lin & Chin‐Tsang Chiang & Tai‐Hwa Shih & Yan‐Nian Jiang & Chin‐Cheng Chou, 2009. "Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 601-611, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:4:p:601-611
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01183.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01183.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01183.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bjarke B. Christensen & Hanne Rosenquist & Helle M. Sommer & Niels L. Nielsen & Sisse Fagt & Niels L. Andersen & Birgit Nørrung, 2005. "A Model of Hygiene Practices and Consumption Patterns in the Consumer Phase," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 49-60, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jyh‐Mirn Lai & Yi‐Ting Hwang & Chin‐Cheng Chou, 2012. "Modeling Exotic Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Entrance Risk Through Air Passenger Violations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 1093-1103, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maarten J. Nauta & Arnout R. H. Fischer & Esther D. Van Asselt & Aarieke E. I. De Jong & Lynn J. Frewer & Rob De Jonge, 2008. "Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: The Effect of Consumer Risk Information on Human Disease Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 179-192, February.
    2. Arnout R. H. Fischer & Lynn J. Frewer & Maarten J. Nauta, 2006. "Toward Improving Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: A Multi‐Item Rasch Scale for the Measurement of the Safety Efficacy of Domestic Food‐Handling Practices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1323-1338, October.
    3. Maarten Nauta & Bjarke Christensen, 2011. "The Impact of Consumer Phase Models in Microbial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 255-265, February.
    4. Carol Byrd-Bredbenner & Jacqueline Berning & Jennifer Martin-Biggers & Virginia Quick, 2013. "Food Safety in Home Kitchens: A Synthesis of the Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-26, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:4:p:601-611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.