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Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water

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  • Margaret Donald
  • Angus Cook
  • Kerrie Mengersen

Abstract

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert's opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret Donald & Angus Cook & Kerrie Mengersen, 2009. "Bayesian Network for Risk of Diarrhea Associated with the Use of Recycled Water," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(12), pages 1672-1685, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:12:p:1672-1685
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01301.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph N. Eisenberg & Edmund Y. W. Seto & Adam W. Olivieri & Robert C. Spear, 1996. "Quantifying Water Pathogen Risk in an Epidemiological Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 549-563, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. H. Smid & A. N. Swart & A. H. Havelaar & A. Pielaat, 2011. "A Practical Framework for the Construction of a Biotracing Model: Application to Salmonella in the Pork Slaughter Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1434-1450, September.

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