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The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Commercial Aviation System

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  • Peter Gordon
  • James E. Moore
  • Ji Young Park
  • Harry W. Richardson

Abstract

We use data on air passenger travel expenditures per passenger as well as statistical analysis of the air traffic lost for the two‐year aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attacks to estimate direct demand losses for air transportation services. These are used along with a national input‐output model to assess the full costs of these losses. Depending on assumptions made, the full losses to the U.S. economy were between $214.3 and $420.5 billion. These estimates are similar to those from other studies of such an event, and suggest that the high costs of effective countermeasures may be justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Gordon & James E. Moore & Ji Young Park & Harry W. Richardson, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Commercial Aviation System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 505-512, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:3:p:505-512
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00903.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cagliuso Sr. Nicholas V, 2005. "The Risks of Terrorism," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-7, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Heather Rosoff & William J. Burns & Paul Slovic & Oswin Chan, 2017. "The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1403-1418, July.
    2. Shelly C. McArdle & Heather Rosoff & Richard S. John, 2012. "The Dynamics of Evolving Beliefs, Concerns Emotions, and Behavioral Avoidance Following 9/11: A Longitudinal Analysis of Representative Archival Samples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 744-761, April.
    3. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley & William J. Burns, 2014. "Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 27-42, March.
    4. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
    5. Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Jiyoung Park & Harry W. Richardson, 2010. "Short-Run Economic Impacts of Hurricane Katrina (and Rita)," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 73-79, July.
    6. Büchel, Beda & Marra, Alessio Daniele & Corman, Francesco, 2022. "COVID-19 as a window of opportunity for cycling: Evidence from the first wave," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-156.

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