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How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets

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  • Erwann Michel‐Kerjan
  • Burkhard Pedell

Abstract

Terrorist attacks that have succeeded abroad since 2001, as well as others that were prevented, indicate that the threat of a large‐scale attack is real and will be with us for a long time. Focusing on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this article analyzes the role that insurance can play in providing commercial enterprises with financial protection against the economic consequences of major terrorist attacks. The article begins by explaining the design and key features of terrorism insurance programs operating today in each of the three countries (TRIA in the U.S., Pool Re in the U.K., and Extremus in Germany). The authors then provide a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of prices and take‐up rates (based on as yet unpublished data), with particular attention to financial institutions. For those who think the U.S. is the most likely target for mega‐terrorism, the findings are somewhat puzzling. On average, for example, companies in the U.S. do not pay even half as much for comparable coverage under TRIA as companies pay in Germany under Extremus, which raises the questions: Is terrorism coverage under the U.S. insurance program now drastically underpriced? If so, what would be the likely consequences of another large‐scale attack in the U.S.? On the demand side, the authors observe a dramatic increase in take‐up rates in the U.S. since 2003, revealing increased corporate concern. By contrast, the market penetration in Germany remains remarkably low. A better understanding of these programs and of the recent evolution of terrorism insurance markets in the U.S. and Europe should help corporate and government decision makers develop more effective protection against the economic consequences of mega‐terrorism.

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  • Erwann Michel‐Kerjan & Burkhard Pedell, 2006. "How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 18(4), pages 61-75, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jacrfn:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:61-75
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6622.2006.00112.x
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    1. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Cummins, J. David & Lewis, Christopher M. & Wei, Ran, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the economic impact of federal terrorism reinsurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 861-898, July.
    2. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2006. "Looking Beyond TRIA: A Clinical Examination of Potential Terrorism Loss Sharing," NBER Working Papers 12069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Burkhard Pedell, 2005. "Terrorism Risk Coverage in the Post-9/11 Era: A Comparison of New Public–Private Partnerships in France, Germany and the U.S.*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(1), pages 144-170, January.
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    10. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2004. "Policy Watch: Challenges for Terrorism Risk Insurance in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 201-214, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Dirk Wrede & Annemarie Will & Tim Linderkamp & Johann-Matthias Graf Schulenburg, 2017. "An Urban Crisis Management System for Critical Infrastructures: Participation Possibilities for Insurance Companies," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(4), pages 633-656, October.
    3. Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, 2007. "Evaluating The Effectiveness of Terrorism Risk Financing Solutions," NBER Working Papers 13359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dai, Yunhao & Rau, P. Raghavendra & Stouraitis, Aris & Tan, Weiqiang, 2020. "An ill wind? Terrorist attacks and CEO compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 379-398.
    5. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Paul A. Raschky & Howard C. Kunreuther, 2009. "Corporate Demand for Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Market for Catastrophe and Non-Catastrophe Risks," Working Papers 2009-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Huang, Chia-Wei & Lin, Chih-Yen, 2023. "Extreme negative events and corporate acquisitions: Terrorist attacks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.
    8. Michel-Kerjan, Erwann & Raschky, Paul A., 2011. "The effects of government intervention on the market for corporate terrorism insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 122-132.

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