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Cybernetic Risk Analysis

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  • Kevin J. Foster

Abstract

The Pearl Harbor case study reveals that risk analysis failure may be caused by any of a number of factors. However, the most important variables are system load, gain, lead time, and lag time. The dynamics of such cybernetic systems analysis constitute an important aspect in this regard. Four different risk management strategies, or organization designs, have been proposed in this paper. Each has a unique combination of the imputed variables and each has a unique cause of surprise, risk analysis failure, and crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Foster, 1997. "Cybernetic Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 215-225, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:215-225
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00860.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Azadeh & Kosar Darivandi & Ehsan Fathi, 2012. "Diagnosing, Simulating and Improving Business Process Using Cybernetic Laws and the Viable System Model: The Case of a Purchasing Process," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 66-86, January.
    2. Ali Azadeh & Kosar Darivandi Shoushtari & Mortezza Saberi & Ebrahim Teimoury, 2014. "An Integrated Artificial Neural Network and System Dynamics Approach in Support of the Viable System Model to Enhance Industrial Intelligence: The Case of a Large Broiler Industry," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 236-257, March.
    3. Nora Mouhib & Slimane Bah & Abdelaziz Berrado, 2020. "Viability Theory and PSI Theory Interrelation Inspired by Bunge Systemic Classification: the Viable System Ontology Theory," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 675-701, December.

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