IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/navres/v53y2006i5p432-447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A misclassification cost‐minimizing evolutionary–neural classification approach

Author

Listed:
  • Parag Pendharkar
  • Sudhir Nanda

Abstract

Machine learning algorithms that incorporate misclassification costs have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we use the principles of evolution to develop and test an evolutionary/genetic algorithm (GA)‐based neural approach that incorporates asymmetric Type I and Type II error costs. Using simulated, real‐world medical and financial data sets, we compare the results of the proposed approach with other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning approaches, which include statistical linear discriminant analysis, back‐propagation artificial neural network, integrated cost preference‐based linear mathematical programming‐based minimize squared deviations, linear integrated cost preference‐based GA, decision trees (C 5.0, and CART), and inexpensive classification with expensive tests algorithm. Our results indicate that the proposed approach incorporating asymmetric error costs results in equal or lower holdout sample misclassification cost when compared with the other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning misclassification cost‐minimizing approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Parag Pendharkar & Sudhir Nanda, 2006. "A misclassification cost‐minimizing evolutionary–neural classification approach," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(5), pages 432-447, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:53:y:2006:i:5:p:432-447
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.20154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.20154
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/nav.20154?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2002. "A computational study on the performance of artificial neural networks under changing structural design and data distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 155-177, April.
    2. Catherine K. Murphy & Michel Benaroch, 1997. "Adding Value to Induced Decision Trees for Time-Sensitive Data," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 385-396, November.
    3. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    4. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    5. Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha & Troutt, Marvin D., 2003. "Genetic search over probability spaces," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 333-347, January.
    6. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    8. Akhil Kumar & Ignacio Olmeda, 1999. "A Study of Composite or Hybrid Classifiers for Knowledge Discovery," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 267-277, August.
    9. Abad, P. L. & Banks, W. J., 1993. "New LP based heuristics for the classification problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 88-100, May.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    11. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    12. Vijay S. Mookerjee & Michael V. Mannino, 1997. "Redesigning Case Retrieval to Reduce Information Acquisition Costs," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 51-68, March.
    13. Michael V. Mannino & Vijay S. Mookerjee, 1999. "Optimizing Expert Systems: Heuristics for Efficiently Generating Low-Cost Information Acquisition Strategies," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 278-291, August.
    14. Vijay S. Mookerjee & Brian L. Dos Santos, 1993. "Inductive Expert System Design: Maximizing System Value," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 111-140, June.
    15. Sudhir Nanda & Parag Pendharkar, 2001. "Linear models for minimizing misclassification costs in bankruptcy prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 155-168, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parag C. Pendharkar, 2011. "Probabilistic Approaches For Credit Screening And Bankruptcy Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 177-193, October.
    2. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P Pendharkar, 2009. "Misclassification cost minimizing fitness functions for genetic algorithm-based artificial neural network classifiers," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(8), pages 1123-1134, August.
    2. du Jardin, Philippe, 2012. "The influence of variable selection methods on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models," MPRA Paper 44383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sudhir Nanda & Parag Pendharkar, 2001. "Linear models for minimizing misclassification costs in bankruptcy prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 155-168, September.
    4. Parag C. Pendharkar, 2011. "Probabilistic Approaches For Credit Screening And Bankruptcy Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 177-193, October.
    5. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    6. du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2011. "Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map: An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model," MPRA Paper 44262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fayçal Mraihi, 2016. "Distressed Company Prediction Using Logistic Regression: Tunisian’s Case," Quarterly Journal of Business Studies, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 34-54.
    8. du Jardin, Philippe, 2010. "Predicting bankruptcy using neural networks and other classification methods: the influence of variable selection techniques on model accuracy," MPRA Paper 44375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    10. Sun, Lili & Shenoy, Prakash P., 2007. "Using Bayesian networks for bankruptcy prediction: Some methodological issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 738-753, July.
    11. Şaban Çelik & Bora Aktan & Bruce Burton, 2022. "Firm dynamics and bankruptcy processes: A new theoretical model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 567-591, April.
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-037 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2009. "Variable selection and oversampling in the use of smooth support vector machines for predicting the default risk of companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 512-534.
    14. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mramor, Dusan & Valentincic, Aljosa, 2003. "Forecasting the liquidity of very small private companies," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 745-771, November.
    16. Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2015. "On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 407-428, November.
    17. Su-Han Woo & Min-Su Kwon & Kum Fai Yuen, 2021. "Financial determinants of credit risk in the logistics and shipping industries," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 268-290, June.
    18. Zhichao Luo & Pingyu Hsu & Ni Xu, 2020. "SME Default Prediction Framework with the Effective Use of External Public Credit Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    19. Qunfeng LIAO & Seyed MEHDIAN, 2016. "Measuring Financial Distress And Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Index Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 33-51, June.
    20. Teija Laitinen & Maria Kankaanpaa, 1999. "Comparative analysis of failure prediction methods: the Finnish case," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92.
    21. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2007. "The Default Risk of Firms Examined with Smooth Support Vector Machines," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 757, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:53:y:2006:i:5:p:432-447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6750 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.