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Attrition models of the Ardennes campaign

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  • Ronald D. Fricker

Abstract

This paper revisits the modeling by Bracken [3] of the Ardennes campaign of World War II using the Lanchester equations. It revises and extends that analysis in a number of ways: (1) It more accurately fits the model parameters using linear regression; (2) it considers the data from the entire campaign; and (3) it adds in air sortie data. In contrast to previous results, it concludes by showing that neither the Lanchester linear or Lanchester square laws fit the data. A new form of the Lanchester equations emerges with a physical interpretation. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 1–22, 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald D. Fricker, 1998. "Attrition models of the Ardennes campaign," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:45:y:1998:i:1:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6750(199802)45:13.0.CO;2-D
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Israel David, 1995. "Lanchester modeling and the biblical account of the battles of gibeah," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 579-584, June.
    2. Jerome Bracken, 1995. "Lanchester models of the ardennes campaign," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 559-577, June.
    3. Dean S. Hartley & Robert L. Helmbold, 1995. "Validating Lanchester's square law and other attrition models," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 609-633, June.
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    1. Gerardo Minguela-Castro & Ruben Heradio & Carlos Cerrada, 2021. "Automated Support for Battle Operational–Strategic Decision-Making," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-15, June.
    2. P.S. Sheeba & Debasish Ghose, 2008. "Optimal resource allocation and redistribution strategy in military conflicts with Lanchester square law attrition," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(6), pages 581-591, September.
    3. Patrick S. Chen & Peter Chu, 2001. "Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(8), pages 653-661, December.
    4. Anelí Bongers & José L. Torres, 2021. "A bottleneck combat model: an application to the Battle of Thermopylae," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 2859-2877, December.
    5. Kjell Hausken & John F. Moxnes, 2005. "Approximations and empirics for stochastic war equations," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(7), pages 682-700, October.
    6. Ian R. Johnson & Niall J. MacKay, 2011. "Lanchester models and the battle of Britain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 210-222, April.
    7. Thomas W. Lucas & Turker Turkes, 2004. "Fitting Lanchester equations to the battles of Kursk and Ardennes," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 95-116, February.
    8. M.P. Wiper & L.I. Pettit & K.D.S. Young, 2000. "Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(7), pages 541-558, October.

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