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Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis

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  • Ardeshir Sepehri

    (Department of Economics, The University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada)

  • A Haroon Akram-lodhi

    (Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This article assesses the significance of domestic and foreign savings for Vietnam's economic growth. Using annual data for the period between 1986 and 2000 a three-gap model is formulated and estimated. The model illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint for Vietnam's economic growth. The domestic private savings constraint is also shown to be more binding than the public savings constraint. The estimates of the foreign exchange requirements under various growth path scenarios over the period 2001-05 suggest that the increase in investment required to boost the growth rate of output results in much higher levels of external debt than that estimated by the World Bank and other donors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardeshir Sepehri & A Haroon Akram-lodhi, 2005. "Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 553-574.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:4:p:553-574
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13828.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vuong, Quan-Hoang, 2017. "The Vietnamese financial economy: reforms and development, 1986-2016," OSF Preprints g7e6t, Center for Open Science.
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2015. "Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 588-615, November.
    3. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and trade: The case of Vietnam," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-52, January.
    4. Newman, Carol & Tarp, Finn & Van den Broeck, Katleen & Quang, Chu Tien & Khai, Luu Duc, 2008. "Household Savings in Vietnam: Insights from a 2006 Rural Household Survey," MPRA Paper 62453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11406 is not listed on IDEAS

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