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Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets

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  • Jinghong Wu
  • Ke Xu
  • Xinwei Zheng
  • Jian Chen

Abstract

This paper adopts the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to examine high‐frequency price discovery of bitcoin spot and futures prices from December 18, 2017 to July 31, 2020. We find that bitcoin spot and futures prices exhibit long memory properties and they are fractionally cointegrated. The result shows that the bitcoin futures market dominates the price discovery process. Interestingly, during the Covid‐19 pandemic, the bitcoin price discovery leadership has switched to the spot market. Moreover, we find that the bitcoin futures market follows a long‐run contango. The nonfractional CVAR model overestimates the price discovery of the futures market.

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  • Jinghong Wu & Ke Xu & Xinwei Zheng & Jian Chen, 2021. "Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1478-1494, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:41:y:2021:i:9:p:1478-1494
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22216
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    Cited by:

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    2. Apostolakis, George N., 2024. "Bitcoin price volatility transmission between spot and futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Özer, Mustafa & Frömmel, Michael & Kamişli, Melik & Vuković, Darko B., 2024. "Do bitcoin shocks truly Cointegrate with financial and commodity markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Yung Ting & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Cryptocurrency hacking incidents and the price dynamics of Bitcoin spot and futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
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    6. Arun Narayanasamy & Humnath Panta & Rohit Agarwal, 2023. "Relations among Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Spot, Investor Attention, and Sentiment," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, November.
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    8. Yan, Meng & Chen, Jian & Song, Victor & Xu, Ke, 2022. "Trade friction and price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    10. Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Chen, Haiqiang & Gu, Ming & Liu, Xiaoqun, 2023. "What can we learn from the convenience yield of Bitcoin? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 141-153.
    11. Ke Xu & Yu‐Lun Chen & Bo Liu & Jian Chen, 2024. "Price discovery and long‐memory property: Simulation and empirical evidence from the bitcoin market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 605-618, April.
    12. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
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    15. Jimmy E. Hilliard & Julie T. D. Ngo, 2022. "Bitcoin: jumps, convenience yields, and option prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 2079-2091, November.

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