IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v104y2014i2p564-608.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping

Author

Listed:
  • Myrto Kalouptsidi

Abstract

This paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices. We examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity, by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit. A rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy: resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation. We find that moving from time-varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices, while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Myrto Kalouptsidi, 2014. "Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 564-608, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:2:p:564-608
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.2.564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.2.564
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/app/10402/20111272_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/10402/20111272_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10402/20111272_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2011. "Inference for High-Dimensional Sparse Econometric Models," Papers 1201.0220, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sophie-Charlotte Klose & Johannes Lederer, 2020. "A Pipeline for Variable Selection and False Discovery Rate Control With an Application in Labor Economics," Papers 2006.12296, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    2. Mueller, Hannes & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 358-375, May.
    3. Ning Xu & Jian Hong & Timothy C. G. Fisher, 2016. "Model selection consistency from the perspective of generalization ability and VC theory with an application to Lasso," Papers 1606.00142, arXiv.org.
    4. Sander Gerritsen & Mark Kattenberg & Sonny Kuijpers, 2019. "The impact of age at arrival on education and mental health," CPB Discussion Paper 389.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021. "Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
    6. Scoles, Brooke & Nicodemo, Catia, 2022. "Doctors’ attitudes toward specific medical conditions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 182-199.
    7. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney K. Newey, 2016. "Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters," CeMMAP working papers 49/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Sander Gerritsen & Mark Kattenberg & Sonny Kuijpers, 2019. "The impact of age at arrival on education and mental health," CPB Discussion Paper 389, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Demian Pouzo, 2015. "On the Non-Asymptotic Properties of Regularized M-estimators," Papers 1512.06290, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    10. Philipp Bach & Victor Chernozhukov & Malte S. Kurz & Martin Spindler & Sven Klaassen, 2021. "DoubleML -- An Object-Oriented Implementation of Double Machine Learning in R," Papers 2103.09603, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    11. Damian Kozbur, 2013. "Inference in additively separable models with a high-dimensional set of conditioning variables," ECON - Working Papers 284, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2018.
    12. Huseynov, Samir & Palma, Marco A., 2018. "Does California’s LCFS Reduce CO2 Emissions?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274200, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Youngjoo Cho & Debashis Ghosh, 2021. "Quantile-Based Subgroup Identification for Randomized Clinical Trials," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 90-128, April.
    14. Li, Zhaoyuan & Yao, Jianfeng, 2019. "Testing for heteroscedasticity in high-dimensional regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 122-139.
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Wolfgang K. Hardle & Chen Huang & Weining Wang, 2018. "LASSO-Driven Inference in Time and Space," Papers 1806.05081, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    16. de Paula, Aureo & Rasul, Imran & Souza, Pedro, 2018. "Identifying Network Ties from Panel Data: Theory and an Application to Tax Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 12792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian Brownlees, 2019. "NETS: Network estimation for time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 347-364, April.
    18. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Lie Wang, 2013. "Pivotal estimation via square-root lasso in nonparametric regression," CeMMAP working papers CWP62/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Belloni, Alexandre & Chen, Mingli & Chernozhukov, Victor, 2016. "Quantile Graphical Models : Prediction and Conditional Independence with Applications to Financial Risk Management," Economic Research Papers 269321, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    20. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Huang, Yiping & Qiu, Han & Wang, Jingyi, 2024. "How do machine learning and non-traditional data affect credit scoring? New evidence from a Chinese fintech firm," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:2:p:564-608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.