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When stock futures dominate price discovery

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  • Nidhi Aggarwal
  • Susan Thomas

Abstract

This paper revisits the role of leverage in price discovery, using one of the most liquid single‐stock futures (SSFs) markets in the world. Price discovery is analysed as a dynamic intraday process. We find that the information share of the SSFs is 55% during news arrivals. It increases to 61%, when the news is negative and the futures is preferred because of short‐sales restrictions on the spot. A partial equilibrium analysis predicts that the trade‐off between leverage and market liquidity determines price discovery across securities. These predictions are validated by empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhi Aggarwal & Susan Thomas, 2019. "When stock futures dominate price discovery," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 263-278, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:3:p:263-278
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21973
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Dan & Farnoosh, Arash & Lantz, Frédéric, 2022. "Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 252-268.
    2. Guntur Anjana Raju & Sanjeeta Shirodkar, 2020. "The Lead Lag Relationship between Spot and Futures Markets in the Energy Sector: Empirical Evidence from Indian Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 409-414.
    3. NIdhi Aggarwal & Venkatesh Panchapagesan & Susan Thomas, 2022. "When is the Order to Trade Ratio fee effective?," Working Papers 8, xKDR.
    4. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "When is the order-to-trade ratio fee effective?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Nidhi Aggarwal & Venkatesh Panchapagesan & Susan Thomas, 2019. "When do regulatory interventions work?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Gbenga Ibikunle & Vito Mollica & Qiao Sun, 2021. "Jumps in foreign exchange spot rates and the informational efficiency of currency forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1201-1219, August.
    7. Jiang, George J. & Shimizu, Yoshiki & Strong, Cuyler, 2022. "Back to the futures: When short selling is banned," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. George J. Jiang & Yoshiki Shimizu & Cuyler Strong, 2020. "When trading options is not the only option: The effects of single‐stock futures trading on options market quality," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1398-1419, September.
    9. Madhusudan Karmakar & Sarveshwar Inani, 2019. "Information share and its predictability in the Indian stock market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1322-1343, October.
    10. Sarveshwar Kumar Inani, 2017. "Price discovery in Indian stock index futures market: new evidence based on intraday data," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1), pages 23-43.
    11. Dan Zhang & Arash Farnoosh & Frédéric Lantz, 2022. "Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 252-268.
    12. Edward Curran & Jack Hunt & Vito Mollica, 2020. "Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1793-1806, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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