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Investor sentiment and the Chinese index futures market: Evidence from the internet search

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  • Xiaolin Wang
  • Qiang Ye
  • Feng Zhao
  • Yi Kou

Abstract

We use the search volume index in Baidu to reveal investor sentiment in the Chinese stock index futures market. We find that the abnormal search volume index predicts return reversal in the short term where the effect is mainly caused by the searches of investors who use personal computers rather than mobile devices. We also find that restriction on futures trading changes the relation between the abnormal search volume index and returns significantly. Overall, we provide a new set of results on the effects of investor sentiment on Chinese index futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaolin Wang & Qiang Ye & Feng Zhao & Yi Kou, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the Chinese index futures market: Evidence from the internet search," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 468-477, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:4:p:468-477
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ran Lu & Hongjun Zeng, 2022. "VIX and major agricultural future markets: dynamic linkage and time-frequency relations around the COVID-19 outbreak," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(2), pages 334-353, September.
    2. Bo Yan & Mengru Liang & Yinxin Zhao, 2024. "Market sentiment and price dynamics in weak markets: A comprehensive empirical analysis of the soybean meal option market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 744-766, May.
    3. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "The EIA WPSR release, OVX and crude oil internet interest," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 131-141.
    4. Geng, Yuedan & Ye, Qiang & Jin, Yu & Shi, Wen, 2022. "Crowd wisdom and internet searches: What happens when investors search for stocks?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Ming‐Hung Wu & Wei‐Che Tsai & Pei‐Shih Weng & Dan‐Yi Li, 2021. "Effects of investor attention in China's commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1315-1332, August.
    7. Eric Jondeau & Xuewu Wang & Zhipeng Yan & Qunzi Zhang, 2020. "Skewness and index futures return," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1648-1664, November.
    8. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "Energy sector uncertainty decomposition: New approach based on implied volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 141-148.
    9. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices: Perspective from contagious investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.

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