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The CBOE S&P 500 three‐month variance futures

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  • Jin E. Zhang
  • Yuqin Huang

Abstract

In this article, we study the market of the Chicago Board Options Exchange S&P 500 three‐month variance futures that were listed on May 18, 2004. By using a simple mean‐reverting stochastic volatility model for the S&P 500 index, we present a linear relation between the price of fixed time‐to‐maturity variance futures and the VIX-super-2. The model prediction is supported by empirical tests. We find that a model with a fixed mean‐reverting speed of 1.2929 and a daily‐calibrated floating long‐term mean level has a good fit to the market data between May 18, 2004, and August 17, 2007. The market price of volatility risk estimated from the 30‐day realized variance and VIX-super-2 has a mean value of −19.1184. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:48–70, 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Jin E. Zhang & Yuqin Huang, 2010. "The CBOE S&P 500 three‐month variance futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 48-70, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:48-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Qiang & Guo, Shuxin & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2015. "VIX forecasting and variance risk premium: A new GARCH approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 314-322.
    2. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Amaral, Teodosio Perez, 2013. "The rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 151-167.
    4. Guang-Hua Lian & Song-Ping Zhu, 2013. "Pricing VIX options with stochastic volatility and random jumps," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 36(1), pages 71-88, May.
    5. Cheng, Jun & Ibraimi, Meriton & Leippold, Markus & Zhang, Jin E., 2012. "A remark on Lin and Chang's paper ‘Consistent modeling of S&P 500 and VIX derivatives’," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 708-715.
    6. Eraker, Bjørn & Wang, Jiakou, 2015. "A non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 547-556.
    7. Ole Linnemann Nielsen & Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Betting on mean reversion in the VIX? Evidence from ETP flows," CREATES Research Papers 2022-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2018. "Modeling VXX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 958-976, August.
    9. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Kai‐Jiun Chang & Mao‐Wei Hung & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2019. "Volatility information implied in the term structure of VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 56-71, January.
    11. Zhe Zhao & Zhenyu Cui & Ionuţ Florescu, 2018. "VIX derivatives valuation and estimation based on closed-form series expansions," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-18, June.
    12. Zhiguang Wang & Brice Dupoyet, 2019. "A dimension‐invariant cascade model for VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1214-1227, October.
    13. Bao, Qunfang, 2013. "Mean-Reverting Logarithmic Modeling of VIX," MPRA Paper 46413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Xingguo Luo & Jin E. Zhang & Wenjun Zhang, 2019. "Instantaneous squared VIX and VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1193-1213, October.

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