IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/japmet/v39y2024i2p327-337.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disease and development—The predicted mortality instrument revisited

Author

Listed:
  • David Kreitmeir
  • Thomas Überfuhr

Abstract

This paper revisits Acemoglu‐Johnson the predicted mortality instrument. Drawing on a unique historical data set of disease‐specific mortality rates, we reconstruct several versions of the instrument that differ in terms of data usage and instrument relevance. Our findings confirm its predictive power on life expectancy. The replication analysis reveals a significant positive second‐stage effect of life expectancy on population and total birth rates and a negative effect on GDP per capita for a subset of the revised instruments. Overall, data coverage and empirical tests suggest the superiority of our country‐level instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kreitmeir & Thomas Überfuhr, 2024. "Disease and development—The predicted mortality instrument revisited," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 327-337, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:2:p:327-337
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.3023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3023
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.3023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2014. "Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1367-1375.
    3. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
    4. Mariko J. Klasing & Petros Milionis, 2020. "The international epidemiological transition and the education gender gap," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 37-86, March.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    6. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    7. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    8. Carolin E. Pflueger & Su Wang, 2015. "A robust test for weak instruments in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 216-225, March.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    11. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & Simon Johnson, 2020. "Population and Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1565-1604.
    13. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2013. "Life expectancy and human capital: Evidence from the international epidemiological transition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1142-1152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trung V. Vu, 2023. "Life expectancy and human capital: New empirical evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 395-412, February.
    2. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    3. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2018. "Health and economic development since 1900," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 228-237.
    4. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    7. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2014. "Cause of death and development in the US," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 143-153.
    8. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Peter Nijkamp & Affandi Ismail & Luthfi M.Irsyad, 2022. "The effect of health on economic growth: a meta-regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 3211-3251, December.
    9. Kotschy, Rainer, 2021. "Health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Keiya Minamimura & Daisihin Yasui, 2019. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Effects of Mortality Changes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 103-120, October.
    11. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    12. Casper Worm Hansen & Lars Lønstrup, 2015. "The Rise in Life Expectancy and Economic Growth in the 20th Century," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 838-852, May.
    13. Mohammad Mainul Hoque & Elizabeth M. King & Claudio E. Montenegro & Peter F. Orazem, 2019. "Revisiting the relationship between longevity and lifetime education: global evidence from 919 surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 551-589, April.
    14. Hoque,Mohammad Mainul & King,Elizabeth M. & Montenegro,Claudio E. & Orazem,Peter F., 2017. "Longevity and lifetime education : global evidence from 919 surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8175, The World Bank.
    15. Marcello Basili & Filippo Belloc, 2015. "How To Measure The Economic Impact Of Vector-Borne Diseases At Country Level," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 896-916, December.
    16. Lei He & Zhengqi Wang, 2023. "The interaction effects of rising life expectancy and the public pension burden on aggregate savings and economic growth," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(2), pages 229-250, May.
    17. Herzer, Dierk & Nagel, Korbinian, 2019. "The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 352-371.
    18. Bensch, Gunther & Gotz, Gunnar & Peters, Jörg, 2020. "Effects of rural electrification on employment: A comment on Dinkelman (2011)," Ruhr Economic Papers 840, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    20. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:2:p:327-337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.