IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/iecrev/v65y2024i1p547-582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Full Recession: Private Versus Social Costs Of Covid‐19

Author

Listed:
  • Juan‐Carlos Cordoba
  • Marla Ripoll
  • Siqiang Yang

Abstract

2020 official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID‐19. This article constructs full recession measures that consider the death toll. Our model features nonexpected utility, leisure, age‐specific survival rates, and tractable heterogeneity. We find an average full recession of 10.7%, which reflects the net value of an aggregate drop in consumption of 2.7%, an average increase of 197 leisure hours and about 540,000 lives lost in the first pandemic year. The full recession for a utilitarian planner is 14.5%, which aligns with that of individuals in their late 50s.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan‐Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll & Siqiang Yang, 2024. "The Full Recession: Private Versus Social Costs Of Covid‐19," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 547-582, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:65:y:2024:i:1:p:547-582
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12667
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/iere.12667?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    5. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
    6. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    7. Viscusi, W. Kip & Masterman, Clayton J., 2017. "Income Elasticities and Global Values of a Statistical Life," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 226-250, July.
    8. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L Violante, 2020. "Presidential Address 2019: How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2715-2754.
    9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    10. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2013. "Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 437-492.
    11. Murtin, Fabrice & Boarini, Romina & Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2017. "Beyond GDP: Is there a law of one shadow price?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-411.
    12. Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3730-3778.
    13. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2075-2126, July.
    14. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?," NBER Working Papers 28006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    16. Córdoba, Juan Carlos & Verdier, Geneviève, 2008. "Inequality and growth: Some welfare calculations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1812-1829, June.
    17. Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2016. "Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2426-2457, September.
    18. Juan Carlos CóRdoba & Marla Ripoll, 2017. "Risk Aversion and the Value of Life," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1472-1509.
    19. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Masterman, Clayton J. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2018. "The Income Elasticity of Global Values of a Statistical Life: Stated Preference Evidence," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 407-434, October.
    21. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. St-Amour, Pascal, 2024. "Valuing life over the life cycle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Murtin, Fabrice & Boarini, Romina & Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2017. "Beyond GDP: Is there a law of one shadow price?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-411.
    3. Da Costa, Shaun, 2023. "Estimating the welfare gains from anti-retroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Juan Carlos Córdoba & Marla Ripoll, 2019. "The Elasticity of Intergenerational Substitution, Parental Altruism, and Fertility Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1935-1972.
    5. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2012. "Life, Death and World Inequality," Staff General Research Papers Archive 34945, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Shaun M. Da Costa, 2020. "The impact of the Ebola crisis on mortality and welfare in Liberia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1517-1532, December.
    7. Shaun Da Costa, 2023. "Estimating the value of life expectancy gains in Tanzania using the life satisfaction and model based approaches," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1040-1063, May.
    8. Ryan Edwards, 2013. "The cost of uncertain life span," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1485-1522, October.
    9. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2022. "Value of life and annuity demand," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 371-396, June.
    10. Romina Boarini & Marc Fleurbaey & Fabrice Murtin & Paul Schreyer, 2022. "Well‐being during the Great Recession: new evidence from a measure of multi‐dimensional living standards with heterogeneous preferences," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 104-138, January.
    11. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2019. "Missed opportunities? Human welfare in Western Europe and the United States, 1913–1950," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 57-73.
    12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Doubts or Variability?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 7, pages 217-256, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Brembilla, Laurent, 2018. "Longevity and welfare in general equilibrium," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 22-36.
    14. David K. Backus & Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 319-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Aldy, Joseph E. & Atkinson, Giles & Kotchen, Matthew J., 2021. "Environmental benefit-cost analysis: a comparative analysis between the United States and the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110879, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2023. "Model uncertainty, economic development, and welfare costs of business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2015. "Children, Dynastic Altruism and the Wealth of Nations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 774-791, October.
    18. AJ A. Bostian & Christoph Heinzel, 2018. "Comparative precautionary saving under higher-order risk and recursive utility," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(1), pages 95-114, May.
    19. Cordoba, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Children and the Wealth of Nations," Staff General Research Papers Archive 34989, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Bai, Hang & Zhang, Lu, 2022. "Searching for the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 897-926.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:65:y:2024:i:1:p:547-582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.