Redistribution And Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks

This article studies the impact of fiscal uncertainty shocks. In micro data, noncapital holders reduce consumption persistently in response to an increase in fiscal uncertainty whereas capital holders do not. Motivated by this evidence, I introduce limited capital market participation and show that it magnifies the fall in economic activity due to a fiscal uncertainty shock and induces macroeconomic comovement. This is because the limited participation model captures individual uncertainty about redistribution. When agents are ambiguity averse, this uncertainty about redistribution has first‐order effects. As a result, the model successfully matches the empirical responses of macro and household variables.