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Productivity Or Unexpected Demand Shocks: What Determines Firms' Investment And Exit Decisions?

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  • Pradeep Kumar
  • Hongsong Zhang

Abstract

We investigate the roles played by unexpected demand shocks, besides productivity, on firms' capital investment and exit decisions. We propose a practical approach to recover unexpected firm‐level demand shocks using inventory data. The recognition of demand shocks and inventory also improves the productivity estimation. The empirical results indicate that although productivity and demand shocks are both significant factors determining firm behavior, the former is more dominant for investment decision and the latter is more salient for firm exit. These findings confirm that unexpected demand shocks, besides persistent productivity, are important factors when analyzing capital investment and firm exit decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pradeep Kumar & Hongsong Zhang, 2019. "Productivity Or Unexpected Demand Shocks: What Determines Firms' Investment And Exit Decisions?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 303-327, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:60:y:2019:i:1:p:303-327
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12354
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    Cited by:

    1. Szymon Chudziak, 2022. "On the sources of economic growth, structural consistency of agent-based models and mental-accounting consumer behaviour," KAE Working Papers 2022-073, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    2. Elena Cefis & Cristina Bettinelli & Alex Coad & Orietta Marsili, 2022. "Understanding firm exit: a systematic literature review," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 423-446, August.
    3. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2021. "Entry Regulations and Product Variety in Retail," CEPR Discussion Papers 15992, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2021. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 178-194.
    5. Aghaie, Sina & Javadinia, Amir & Mirahmad, Hooman & Janani, Saeed, 2022. "How incumbents’ response strategy impacts rivals’ market exit timing?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 251-263.
    6. Hiroyuki Okamuro & Yasushi Hara & Yunosuke Iwaki, 2022. "Impact of Consumer Awareness and Behavior on Business Exits in the Hospitality, Tourism, Entertainment, and Culture Industries under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Mauro Caselli & Arpita Chatterjee & Shengyu Li, 2023. "Productivity and Quality of Multi-product Firms," Discussion Papers 2023-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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