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Process Tracing and Contribution Analysis: A Combined Approach to Generative Causal Inference for Impact Evaluation

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  • Barbara Befani
  • John Mayne

Abstract

This article proposes a combination of a popular evaluation approach, contribution analysis (CA), with an emerging method for causal inference, process tracing (PT). Both are grounded in generative causality and take a probabilistic approach to the interpretation of evidence. The combined approach is tested on the evaluation of the contribution of a teaching programme to the improvement of school performance of girls, and is shown to be preferable to either CA or PT alone. The proposed procedure shows that established Bayesian principles and PT tests, based on both science and common sense, can be applied to assess the strength of qualitative and quali‐quantitative observations and evidence, collected within an overarching CA framework; thus shifting the focus of impact evaluation from ‘assessing impact’ to ‘assessing confidence’ (about impact).

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Befani & John Mayne, 2014. "Process Tracing and Contribution Analysis: A Combined Approach to Generative Causal Inference for Impact Evaluation," IDS Bulletin, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 17-36, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:idsxxx:v:45:y:2014:i:6:p:17-36
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1759-5436.12110
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    1. Sarah Seus & Susanne Bührer, 2022. "The evaluation of the Austrian START programme: an impact analysis of a research funding programme using a multi-method approach," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 673-698, June.
    2. Dale, Simon & Frost, Matthew & Ison, Stephen, 2023. "The theory of change and realistic evaluation applied to the evaluation of a transport intervention: The case of the Nottingham Workplace Parking Levy," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Muñoz, Pablo & Cacciotti, Gabriella & Cohen, Boyd, 2018. "The double-edged sword of purpose-driven behavior in sustainable venturing," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 149-178.
    4. Heimlich, Joe E. & Wasserman, Deborah & Tingley, Karen & Roberts, Su-Jen & Aloisio, Jason, 2022. "An influence among influences: The perceived influence contribution scale development and use," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Heinemann, E. & Van Hemelrijck, A. & Guijt, I., 2017. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 16 - Getting the most out of impact evaluation for learning, reporting and influence," IFAD Research Series 280054, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    6. Suwen Chen & Garima Sharma & Pablo Muñoz, 2023. "In Pursuit of Impact: From Research Questions to Problem Formulation in Entrepreneurship Research," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(2), pages 232-264, March.
    7. Richard Woolley & Jordi Molas-Gallart, 2023. "Research impact seen from the user side," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 591-602.
    8. Ratner, B. D. & Larson, A. M. & Barletti, J. P. S. & ElDidi, H. & Catacutan, D. & Flintan, F. & Suhardiman, Diana & Falk, T. & Meinzen-Dick, R., 2022. "Multistakeholder platforms for natural resource governance: lessons from eight landscape-level cases," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-27(2):2..
    9. Schenk, Mario, 2018. "Die Rolle des Staates in Konflikten um 'land grabbing' in Nordbrasilien," GLOCON Working Paper Series 8, Freie Universität Berlin, Junior Research Group "Global Change – Local Conflicts?" (GLOCON).
    10. Terrapon-Pfaff, Julia & Gröne, Marie-Christine & Dienst, Carmen & Ortiz, Willington, 2018. "Productive use of energy – Pathway to development? Reviewing the outcomes and impacts of small-scale energy projects in the global south," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 198-209.
    11. D. J. H. te Lintelo & K. Pittore, 2021. "Evaluating Parliamentary Advocacy for Nutrition in Tanzania," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(3), pages 735-759, June.
    12. Hounkonnou, Dominique & Brouwers, Jan & van Huis, Arnold & Jiggins, Janice & Kossou, Dansou & Röling, Niels & Sakyi-Dawson, Owuraku & Traoré, Mamoudou, 2018. "Triggering regime change: A comparative analysis of the performance of innovation platforms that attempted to change the institutional context for nine agricultural domains in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 296-309.
    13. Terrapon-Pfaff, Julia & Gröne, Marie-Christine & Dienst, Carmen & Ortiz, Willington, 2018. "Impact pathways of small-scale energy projects in the global south – Findings from a systematic evaluation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 84-94.

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