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Non‐Linear Effects of Soda Taxes on Consumption and Weight Outcomes

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  • Jason M. Fletcher
  • David E. Frisvold
  • Nathan Tefft

Abstract

The potential health impacts of imposing large taxes on soda to improve population health have been of interest for over a decade. As estimates of the effects of existing soda taxes with low rates suggest little health improvements, recent proposals suggest that large taxes may be effective in reducing weight because of non‐linear consumption responses or threshold effects. This paper tests this hypothesis in two ways. First, we estimate non‐linear effects of taxes using the range of current rates. Second, we leverage the sudden, relatively large soda tax increase in two states during the early 1990s combined with new synthetic control methods useful for comparative case studies. Our findings suggest virtually no evidence of non‐linear or threshold effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Jason M. Fletcher & David E. Frisvold & Nathan Tefft, 2015. "Non‐Linear Effects of Soda Taxes on Consumption and Weight Outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 566-582, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:24:y:2015:i:5:p:566-582
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3045
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    2. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David & Hill, Anna & Jones, David, 2019. "The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on purchases and consumption by adults and children," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Sunjin Ahn & Jayson L. Lusk, 2021. "Non‐Pecuniary Effects of Sugar‐Sweetened Beverage Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 53-69, January.
    4. Sriparna Ghosh & Joshua C. Hall, 2018. "The Political Economy of Soda Taxation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1045-1051.
    5. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones, "undated". "The Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Purchases: Evidence from Four City-Level Taxes in the U.S," Mathematica Policy Research Reports c082eda4528243fba6be6c99f, Mathematica Policy Research.
    6. Julio C. Arteaga & Daniel Flores & Edgar Luna, 2021. "The effect of a soft drink tax in Mexico: evidence from time series industry data," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 349-366, April.
    7. Buttet, Sebastien & Dolar, Veronika, 2015. "Toward a quantitative theory of food consumption choices and body weight," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 143-156.
    8. John Cawley & Chelsea Crain & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2018. "The Pass-Through of the Largest Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: The Case of Boulder, Colorado," NBER Working Papers 25050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zhang, Yinjunjie & Palma, Marco A., 2018. "Revisiting the Effects of Sugar Tax on Demand Elasticities - Evidence from the BLP Demand Model," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273978, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones & Chelsea Lensing, 2021. "The Pass‐Through of a Tax on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages in Boulder, Colorado," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 987-1005, May.
    11. Cawley, John & Frisvold, David, 2023. "Review: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages: Political economy, and effects on prices, purchases, and consumption," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2020. "The impact of sugar‐sweetened beverage taxes on purchases: Evidence from four city‐level taxes in the United States," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(10), pages 1289-1306, October.
    13. Rieger, Matthias & Wagner, Natascha & Bedi, Arjun S., 2017. "Universal health coverage at the macro level: Synthetic control evidence from Thailand," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 46-55.
    14. John Creedy, 2016. "Sugar Taxes and Changes in Total Calorie Consumption: A Simple Framework," Treasury Working Paper Series 16/06, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. David Powell, 2016. "Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Case Studies Does the Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?," Working Papers WR-1142, RAND Corporation.
    16. Arteaga, Julio Cesar & Flores, Daniel & Luna, Edgar, 2017. "The effect of a soft-drink tax in Mexico: a time series approach," MPRA Paper 80831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mathieu-Bolh, Nathalie & Wendner, Ronald, 2020. "We are what we eat: Obesity, income, and social comparisons," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    18. Cawley, John, 2015. "An economy of scales: A selective review of obesity's economic causes, consequences, and solutions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-268.
    19. Brandon J. Restrepo & Jonathan H. Cantor, 2020. "The effects of soda taxes on adolescent sugar intake and blood sugar," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1422-1434, November.
    20. Gračner, Tadeja, 2021. "Bittersweet: How prices of sugar-rich foods contribute to the diet-related disease epidemic in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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