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What happens to value of information measures as the number of decision options increases?

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  • Pelham Barton

Abstract

Aim: To explore what happens to the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as an increasingly large number of decision options is considered. Methods: A stylised model of screening for a hypothetical cancer. The model was used to test different possible ages for ‘once in a lifetime’ screening under a variety of assumptions about model parameter uncertainty. Initial model runs only considered screening at ages which are multiples of 16 years, then multiples of 8 years were allowed, then 4 years, etc. Results: Effects of more refined choice sets on the cost‐effectiveness acceptability frontier (CEAF) and EVPI are shown. The CEAF collapses to zero for threshold incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios at which screening at some age is preferred to no screening, while the EVPI stabilises at a non‐zero figure. Conclusions: The CEAF is likely to be highly dependent on the choice of options when these are a selection from a very large set of possible options. In contrast, the EVPI can be reasonably approximated by a model with a slightly limited choice set. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Pelham Barton, 2011. "What happens to value of information measures as the number of decision options increases?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 853-863, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:20:y:2011:i:7:p:853-863
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1651
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    1. Jonathan Karnon & Carolyn Czoski-Murray & Kevin J. Smith & Christopher Brand, 2009. "A Hybrid Cohort Individual Sampling Natural History Model of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Using Probabilistic Calibration," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(3), pages 304-316, May.
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    3. Drummond, Michael F. & Sculpher, Mark J. & Torrance, George W. & O'Brien, Bernie J. & Stoddart, Greg L., 2005. "Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198529453.
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    1. Laura McCullagh & Cathal Walsh & Michael Barry, 2012. "Value-of-Information Analysis to Reduce Decision Uncertainty Associated with the Choice of Thromboprophylaxis after Total Hip Replacement in the Irish Healthcare Setting," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(10), pages 941-959, October.

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