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Think of a number… any number?

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  • David K. Whynes
  • Zoë Philips
  • Emma Frew

Abstract

An examination of the willingness to pay values elicited from more than 3000 persons involved in three independent studies revealed that the majority had offered one of a limited number of values from the ranges available to them. These values were ‘prominent numbers’, the use of which has been observed previously in circumstances where subjects feel that precise estimates of value are either difficult to make, or are not worth making. The existence of widespread prominence in response is suggestive of hypothetical bias in contingent valuation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • David K. Whynes & Zoë Philips & Emma Frew, 2005. "Think of a number… any number?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(11), pages 1191-1195, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:14:y:2005:i:11:p:1191-1195
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frykblom, Peter, 1997. "Hypothetical Question Modes and Real Willingness to Pay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 275-287, November.
    2. Olsen, Jan Abel & Donaldson, Cam & Pereira, Joao, 2004. "The insensitivity of 'willingness-to-pay' to the size of the good: New evidence for health care," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 445-460, August.
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    4. Liljas, Bengt & Blumenschein, Karen, 2000. "On hypothetical bias and calibration in cost-benefit studies," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 53-70, May.
    5. Richard Cookson, 2003. "Willingness to pay methods in health care: a sceptical view," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(11), pages 891-894, November.
    6. Whynes, David K. & Frew, Emma & Wolstenholme, Jane L., 2003. "A comparison of two methods for eliciting contingent valuations of colorectal cancer screening," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-574, July.
    7. Beattie, Jane & Covey, Judith & Dolan, Paul & Hopkins, Lorraine & Jones-Lee, Michael & Loomes, Graham & Pidgeon, Nick & Robinson, Angela & Spencer, Anne, 1998. "On the Contingent Valuation of Safety and the Safety of Contingent Valuation: Part 1--Caveat Investigator," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 5-25, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Abeler & Armin Falk & Lorenz Goette & David Huffman, 2011. "Reference Points and Effort Provision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 470-492, April.
    2. Hammitt, James K. & Herrera-Araujo, Daniel, 2018. "Peeling back the onion: Using latent class analysis to uncover heterogeneous responses to stated preference surveys," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 165-189.
    3. Buckell, John & Hess, Stephane, 2019. "Stubbing out hypothetical bias: improving tobacco market predictions by combining stated and revealed preference data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 93-102.
    4. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian, 2009. "Nominalist Heuristics and Economic Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 17/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    5. Buckell, John & White, Justin S. & Shang, Ce, 2020. "Can incentive-compatibility reduce hypothetical bias in smokers’ experimental choice behavior? A randomized discrete choice experiment," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Breitmoser, Yves, 2017. "Discrete Choice with Presentation Effects," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 35, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. von Hagen, Jürgen & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & Selten, Reinhard & Pope, Robin, 2006. "Prominent Numbers and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination: Field and Laboratory Evidence," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 29/2006, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    8. Breitmoser, Yves, 2016. "Stochastic choice, systematic mistakes and preference estimation," MPRA Paper 72779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Converse, Benjamin A. & Dennis, Patrick J., 2018. "The role of “Prominent Numbers” in open numerical judgment: Strained decision makers choose from a limited set of accessible numbers," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 94-107.
    10. Trine Bergmo & Silje Wangberg, 2007. "Patients’ willingness to pay for electronic communication with their general practitioner," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 8(2), pages 105-110, June.
    11. Richard D. Smith, 2007. "The role of ‘reference goods’ in contingent valuation: should we help respondents to ‘construct’ their willingness to pay?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(12), pages 1319-1332, December.
    12. Ryan, Anthony M. & Spash, Clive L., 2010. "Testing Kahneman's Attitudinal WTP Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 22468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hiroaki Sakaguchi & John Gathergood & Neil Stewart, 2020. "How Preferences for Round Numbers Affect Choices: Stickiness and Jumpiness in Credit Card Payments," Discussion Papers 2020-20, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    14. Whynes, David K. & Frew, Emma J. & Philips, Zoe N. & Covey, Judith & Smith, Richard D., 2007. "On the numerical forms of contingent valuation responses," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 462-476, August.

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