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Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization

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  • Amanda Y. Agan
  • J.J. Prescott

Abstract

Sex offender laws that target recidivism (e.g., community notification and residency restriction regimes) are premised—at least in part—on the idea that sex offender proximity and victimization risk are positively correlated. We examine this relationship by combining past and current address information of registered sex offenders (RSOs) with crime data from Baltimore County, Maryland, to study how crime rates vary across neighborhoods with different concentrations of resident RSOs. Contrary to the assumptions of policymakers and the public, we find that, all else equal, reported sex offense victimization risk is generally (although not uniformly) lower in neighborhoods where more RSOs live. To further probe the relationship between where RSOs live and where sex crime occurs, we consider whether public knowledge of the identity and proximity of RSOs may make offending in those areas more difficult for (or less attractive to) all potential sex offenders. We exploit the fact that Maryland's registry became searchable via the Internet during our sample period to investigate how laws that publicly identify RSOs may change the relationship between the residential concentration of RSOs and neighborhood victimization risk. Surprisingly, for some categories of sex crime, notification appears to increase the relative risk of victimization in neighborhoods with greater concentrations of RSOs.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda Y. Agan & J.J. Prescott, 2014. "Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 786-828, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:786-828
    DOI: 10.1111/jels.12056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Amanda Y. Agan, 2011. "Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 207-239.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Songman, 2017. "The consequences of sex offender residency restriction: Evidence from North Carolina," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 10-22.
    2. Yeh, Susan, 2015. "Revealing the rapist next door: Property impacts of a sex offender registry," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-60.
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    4. Martin Salm & Ben Vollaard, 2021. "The Dynamics of Crime Risk Perceptions," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 520-561.

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