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Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts

Author

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  • Matteo Cervellati
  • Uwe Sunde
  • Simona Valmori

Abstract

This article documents a statistically strong and quantitatively relevant effect of high exposure to infectious diseases on the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the presence and endemicity of multi†host vector†transmitted pathogens in a country, which is closely related to geo†climatic conditions due to the specific features of these pathogens. Exploiting within†country variation over time shows that this effect of pathogen exposure is significantly amplified by weather shocks. The results indicate health shocks and the outbreak of epidemics as a potential channel, while we find no evidence that the effect works through alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:127:y:2017:i:607:p:2581-2616
    DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12430
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    Cited by:

    1. Marino, Francesca & Nunziata, Luca, 2022. "Radioactive decay, health and social capital: Lessons from the Chernobyl experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 315-340.
    2. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    3. Brittney Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2021. "Covid-19, State Capacity, and Political Violence by Nonstate Actors," HiCN Working Papers 349, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Sepahvand, Mohammad H. & Verwimp, Philip, 2023. "Fighting Covid-19 amidst civil conflict: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Kammas, Pantelis & Sarantides, Vassilis, 2024. "Historical pathogen prevalence and the radius of trust," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.
    7. Davide La Torre & Danilo Liuzzi & Simone Marsiglio, 2022. "Geographical heterogeneities and externalities in an epidemiological‐macroeconomic framework," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1154-1181, October.
    8. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Nathalie Monnet & Rohit Ticku, 2020. "Shutdown policies and worldwide conflict," Post-Print hal-03140082, HAL.
    9. De Luca, Giacomo Davide & Lin, Xi, 2024. "The role of health and health systems in promoting social capital, political participation and peace: A narrative review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Birchenall, Javier A., 2023. "Disease and diversity in long-term economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    12. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Ide, Tobias, 2021. "COVID-19 and armed conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Paolo Figini & Simona Cicognani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2023. "Booking in the Rain. Testing the Impact of Public Information on Prices," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 1329-1364, November.
    15. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    16. Britt Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2022. "COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 90-104, January.
    17. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

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