IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v140y2021ics0305750x20304836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 and armed conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Ide, Tobias

Abstract

This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a worrisome trend given the tremendous impacts of armed conflict on human security and on the capabilities of countries to deal with health emergencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ide, Tobias, 2021. "COVID-19 and armed conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20304836
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20304836
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John E. Ataguba, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic, a War to be Won: Understanding its Economic Implications for Africa," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 325-328, June.
    2. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    3. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
    4. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
    5. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bank, André & Deepen, Yannick & Grauvogel, Julia & Kurtenbach, Sabine, 2022. "COVID-19 and violent actors in the global south: An inter- and cross-regional comparison," GIGA Working Papers 329, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    2. Sepahvand, Mohammad H. & Verwimp, Philip, 2023. "Fighting Covid-19 amidst civil conflict: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Basedau, Matthias & Deitch, Mora, 2021. "One year after: Has the COVID-19 pandemic increased violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," GIGA Working Papers 327, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Roos Haer & Babak RezaeeDaryakenari, 2022. "Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 43-57, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Britt Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2022. "COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 90-104, January.
    2. Brittney Koehnlein & Ore Koren, 2021. "Covid-19, State Capacity, and Political Violence by Nonstate Actors," HiCN Working Papers 349, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    4. Sepahvand, Mohammad H. & Verwimp, Philip, 2023. "Fighting Covid-19 amidst civil conflict: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    6. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.
    7. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    8. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. De Luca, Giacomo Davide & Lin, Xi, 2024. "The role of health and health systems in promoting social capital, political participation and peace: A narrative review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    11. Paolo Figini & Simona Cicognani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2023. "Booking in the Rain. Testing the Impact of Public Information on Prices," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 1329-1364, November.
    12. Birchenall, Javier A., 2023. "Disease and diversity in long-term economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Marino, Francesca & Nunziata, Luca, 2022. "Radioactive decay, health and social capital: Lessons from the Chernobyl experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 315-340.
    14. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Nathalie Monnet & Rohit Ticku, 2020. "Shutdown Policies and Worldwide Conflict," Working Papers 20-16, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    15. Kammas, Pantelis & Sarantides, Vassilis, 2024. "Historical pathogen prevalence and the radius of trust," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Davide La Torre & Danilo Liuzzi & Simone Marsiglio, 2022. "Geographical heterogeneities and externalities in an epidemiological‐macroeconomic framework," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1154-1181, October.
    17. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    18. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The political economy of ethnolinguistic cleavages," Working Papers 2009-17, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    19. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Resource Rents, Power, and Political Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 4727, CESifo.
    20. Mueller, Hannes & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 358-375, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20304836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.