IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/corsem/v31y2024i3p2277-2289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Applying sustainable development goals in financial forecasting using machine learning techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Ariana Chang
  • Tian‐Shyug Lee
  • Hsiu‐Mei Lee

Abstract

This study seeks to identify the impact of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in predicting corporate financial performance (CFP) in the information communications technology (ICT) industry. Data over the period of 2016–2020 that are relevant to financial reporting and corporate social responsibility (CSR) reporting have been extracted for 208 firms in the ICT industry. Important variables have been identified to help predict the financial performance in the following years upon the publication of CSR reports. Drawing on resource‐based view and stakeholder theory, the purpose of this study is to find the quintessential variables that influence the prediction accuracy of financial performance. To better forecast earnings per share (EPS), machine learning feature selection methods have been implemented. The findings suggest that certain variables such as return on total assets, SDGs adoption and whether the firm has established KPI for SDGs achievements can help enhance EPS prediction. With the various predictive models, the artificial neural network model is the most effective in predicting CFPs. Most importantly, the adoption of SDGs can be utilized to sharpen the forecast on financial performance as it enables firms to bolster stakeholder engagement and evaluate environmental, social, and corporate governance efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariana Chang & Tian‐Shyug Lee & Hsiu‐Mei Lee, 2024. "Applying sustainable development goals in financial forecasting using machine learning techniques," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 2277-2289, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:corsem:v:31:y:2024:i:3:p:2277-2289
    DOI: 10.1002/csr.2694
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.2694
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/csr.2694?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Disney Leite Ramos & Shouming Chen & Ahmed Rabeeu & Abdul Basit Abdul Rahim, 2022. "Does SDG Coverage Influence Firm Performance?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Cheng-Li Huang & Fan-Hua Kung, 2010. "Drivers of Environmental Disclosure and Stakeholder Expectation: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 96(3), pages 435-451, October.
    3. Zakia Batool & Sajjad Ali & Abdul Rehman, 2022. "Environmental Impact of ICT on Disaggregated Energy Consumption in China: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Ga-Young Jang & Hyoung-Goo Kang & Ju-Yeong Lee & Kyounghun Bae, 2020. "ESG Scores and the Credit Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Hidaya Al Lawati & Khaled Hussainey, 2022. "Does Sustainable Development Goals Disclosure Affect Corporate Financial Performance?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Stephen Brammer & Chris Brooks & Stephen Pavelin, 2006. "Corporate Social Performance and Stock Returns: UK Evidence from Disaggregate Measures," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
    7. Alexander Chernev & Sean Blair, 2015. "Doing Well by Doing Good: The Benevolent Halo of Corporate Social Responsibility," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 41(6), pages 1412-1425.
    8. Irene M. Herremans & Jamal A. Nazari & Fereshteh Mahmoudian, 2016. "Stakeholder Relationships, Engagement, and Sustainability Reporting," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 417-435, October.
    9. Michał Baran & Aneta Kuźniarska & Zbigniew J. Makieła & Anna Sławik & Magdalena M. Stuss, 2022. "Does ESG Reporting Relate to Corporate Financial Performance in the Context of the Energy Sector Transformation? Evidence from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Samuel Drempetic & Christian Klein & Bernhard Zwergel, 2020. "The Influence of Firm Size on the ESG Score: Corporate Sustainability Ratings Under Review," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 167(2), pages 333-360, November.
    11. Fernando García & Jairo González-Bueno & Francisco Guijarro & Javier Oliver, 2020. "Forecasting the Environmental, Social, and Governance Rating of Firms by Using Corporate Financial Performance Variables: A Rough Set Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Yung-Ming Shiu & Shou-Lin Yang, 2017. "Does engagement in corporate social responsibility provide strategic insurance-like effects?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 455-470, February.
    13. Gan, Lirong & Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun, 2020. "Machine learning solutions to challenges in finance: An application to the pricing of financial products," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Wei-Yin Loh, 2014. "Fifty Years of Classification and Regression Trees," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(3), pages 329-348, December.
    15. Roberts, Robin W., 1992. "Determinants of corporate social responsibility disclosure: An application of stakeholder theory," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 595-612, August.
    16. Gunnar Friede & Timo Busch & Alexander Bassen, 2015. "ESG and financial performance: aggregated evidence from more than 2000 empirical studies," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 210-233, October.
    17. Tzu-Yun Tseng & Nien-Su Shih, 2022. "The Effects of CSR Report Mandatory Policy on Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from Taiwan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Sungwoo Lee & Sungho Tae, 2020. "Development of a Decision Support Model Based on Machine Learning for Applying Greenhouse Gas Reduction Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    20. Haider Mahmood, 2020. "CO2 Emissions, Financial Development, Trade, and Income in North America: A Spatial Panel Data Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    21. Po-Keung Ip, 2008. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Crony Capitalism in Taiwan," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 79(1), pages 167-177, April.
    22. Christian Fuchs, 2008. "The implications of new information and communication technologies for sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
    23. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. María Luisa Pajuelo Moreno & Teresa Duarte-Atoche, 2019. "Relationship between Sustainable Disclosure and Performance—An Extension of Ullmann’s Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-33, August.
    2. Valeria D’Amato & Rita D’Ecclesia & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "ESG score prediction through random forest algorithm," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 347-373, June.
    3. Antonios Persakis, 2024. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on ESG performance, carbon emission intensity and firm performance: evidence from Fortune 1000 firms," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 24031-24081, September.
    4. Tarus John Kipngetich & Joel Tenai & Ronald Bonuke, 2019. "Determinants of Environmental Disclosure. Does Leverage Matter? Reflection from Firms Listed in the Nairobi Security Exchange," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 107-114.
    5. Pankaewta Lakkanawanit & Wilawan Dungtripop & Muttanachai Suttipun & Hisham Madi, 2022. "Energy Conservation and Firm Performance in Thailand: Comparison between Energy-Intensive and Non-Energy-Intensive Industries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Jing Lu & Kathleen Rodenburg & Lianne Foti & Ann Pegoraro, 2022. "Are firms with better sustainability performance more resilient during crises?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7), pages 3354-3370, November.
    7. Bruna, Maria Giuseppina & Loprevite, Salvatore & Raucci, Domenico & Ricca, Bruno & Rupo, Daniela, 2022. "Investigating the marginal impact of ESG results on corporate financial performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    8. Alves, Carlos Francisco & Meneses, Lilian Lima, 2024. "ESG scores and debt costs: Exploring indebtedness, agency costs, and financial system impact," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Maretno A. Harjoto & Andreas G. F. Hoepner & Marcus A. Nilsson, 2022. "Bondholders’ returns and stakeholders’ interests," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1271-1301, November.
    10. Heying Liu & Chan Lyu, 2022. "Can ESG Ratings Stimulate Corporate Green Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Federica Ielasi & Paolo Ceccherini & Pietro Zito, 2020. "Integrating ESG Analysis into Smart Beta Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Vezeteu Cosmin-Dănuț & Stănciulescu Raluca-Ioana, 2024. "ESG Risks and Financial Performance. Analysis of Romanian-Listed Companies," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 2196-2210.
    13. Rafia Afrin & Ni Peng & Frances Bowen, 2022. "The Wealth Effect of Corporate Water Actions: How Past Corporate Responsibility and Irresponsibility Influence Stock Market Reactions," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(1), pages 105-124, September.
    14. Angelidis, Timotheos & Michairinas, Athanasios & Sakkas, Athanasios, 2024. "World ESG performance and economic activity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Amos Sodjahin & Claudia Champagne & Frank Coggins & Roland Gillet, 2017. "Leading or lagging indicators of risk? The informational content of extra-financial performance scores," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(5), pages 347-370, September.
    16. Filippo Vitolla & Nicola Raimo & Michele Rubino & Antonello Garzoni, 2019. "How pressure from stakeholders affects integrated reporting quality," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1591-1606, November.
    17. Tzu-Kuan Chiu & Yi-Hsin Wang, 2015. "Determinants of Social Disclosure Quality in Taiwan: An Application of Stakeholder Theory," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 379-398, June.
    18. Jang, Ga-Young & Kang, Hyoung-Goo & Kim, Woojin, 2022. "Corporate executives’ incentives and ESG performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    19. Ved Dilip Beloskar & S. V. D. Nageswara Rao, 2024. "Screening activity matters: Evidence from ESG portfolio performance from an emerging market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2593-2619, July.
    20. Chen, Zhixiong & Sugiyama, Kohei & Tasaka, Kazuyuki & Kito, Tomomi & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2024. "Impact of environmental, social and governance initiatives on firm value: Analysis using AI-based ESG scores for Japanese listed firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:corsem:v:31:y:2024:i:3:p:2277-2289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1535-3966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.