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Cross†Quarter Differences in Stock Price Responses to Earnings Announcements: Fourth†Quarter and Seasonality Influences

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  • GERALD L. SALAMON
  • THOMAS L. STOBER

Abstract

. This article examines the impact of one form of sales seasonality on the response of equity returns to earnings announcements in different quarters. We regress unexpected announcement period returns on unexpected earnings and compare the results for seasonal firms—those with sales consistently concentrated in the same quarter each year—to those of other firms. For seasonal firms, we find robust evidence of a greater regression intercept and some evidence of a greater earnings response coefficient in peak sales quarters than in nonpeak quarters. These results are consistent with a greater resolution of the uncertainty about seasonal firms' prospects in their peak sales quarters than in other quarters. Our evidence also shows that fourth†quarter earnings announcements have smaller stock price response coefficients than do interim announcements. Some prior has found smaller fourth†quarter earnings response coefficients for small but not large firms. We find some evidence that fourth†quarter earnings response coefficients are smaller than interim†quarter response coefficients for large firms as well as for small firms. This suggests that explanations for smaller fourth†quarter earnings response coefficients need to be applicable to both large and small firms. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent, pour différents trimestres, l'incidence d'une forme de caractère saisonnier des ventes sur la réaction du rendement des actions aux déclarations de bénéfices. Ils effectuent une analyse de régression des rendements imprévus des trimestres par rapport aux bénéfices imprévus et comparent les résultats obtenus dans le cas des entreprises dont les activités sont saisonnières—c'est†à †dire dont les ventes sont systématiquement concentrées dans le même trimestre chaque année—aux résultats obtenus dans le cas des autres entreprises. Dans le cas des entreprises dont les activités sont saisonnières, les résultats de l'analyse démontrent vigoureusement que l'intersection de la régression est supérieure et confirment avec moins de fermeté que le coefficient de réaction aux bénéfices déclarés est supérieur pour les trimestres où le volume des ventes culmine, par rapport aux autres trimestres. Ces résultats permettent de conclure à une plus grande résorption de l'incertitude relative aux perspectives des entreprises dont les activités ont un caractère saisonnier dans les trimestres où les ventes de ces entreprises culminent que dans les autres trimestres. Les résultats de l'analyse démontrent également que les déclarations de bénéfices au quatrième trimestre donnent lieu à des coefficients plus faibles de réaction du cours des actions que les déclarations des trimestres intermédiaires. Certains travaux antérieurs ont établi que les coefficients de réaction aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre étaient plus faibles pour les petites entreprises que pour les grandes. L'analyse des auteurs tend ici à démontrer que les coefficients de réaction aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre sont plus faibles que les coefficients de réaction des trimestres intermédiaires pour les grandes entreprises aussi bien que pour les petites entreprises. Ces constatations donnent à penser que les facteurs qui expliquent les coefficients de réaction plus faibles aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre devraient pouvoir s'appliquer tant aux grandes qu'aux petites entreprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald L. Salamon & Thomas L. Stober, 1994. "Cross†Quarter Differences in Stock Price Responses to Earnings Announcements: Fourth†Quarter and Seasonality Influences," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(1), pages 297-330, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:11:y:1994:i:1:p:297-330
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1994.tb00445.x
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    2. Theresa Libby & Robert Mathieu & Sean W. G. Robb, 2002. "Earnings Announcements and Information Asymmetry: An Intra†Day Analysis," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 449-472, September.
    3. Thomas D?Angelo & Marco Lam & Samir El-Gazzar & Rudolph Jacob, 2022. "GAAP-compliant versus non-GAAP voluntary disclosures relative to critical reporting dates," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(1), pages 5-40.
    4. Chhabra, Damini & Gupta, Mohit, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in commodity markets for natural resources: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin C. Roland, 2022. "Quarterly earnings thresholds: Making the case for prior quarter earnings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5-6), pages 690-716, May.
    6. Marks, Joseph M. & Shang, Chenguang, 2024. "Business seasonality and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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