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The New Racial Calculus: Electoral Institutions and Black Representation in Local Legislatures

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  • Melissa J. Marschall
  • Anirudh V. S. Ruhil
  • Paru R. Shah

Abstract

In this study we revisit the question of black representation on city councils and school boards using a novel substantive and methodological approach and longitudinal data for a sample of over 300 boards and councils. Conceptualizing black representation as a two‐stage process, we fit Mullahy's hurdle Poisson models to explain whether and to what extent blacks achieve representation in local legislatures. We find that while the size of the black population and electoral arrangements matter more than ever, especially for overcoming the representational hurdle, the extent to which the black population is concentrated is also strongly associated with black council representation. Further, whereas black resources and opportunities to build “rainbow” coalitions with Latinos or liberal whites are marginally if at all related to black legislative representation, we find that legislative size is an underappreciated mechanism by which to increase representation, particularly in at‐large systems, and is perhaps the best predictor of moving towards additional representation.

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  • Melissa J. Marschall & Anirudh V. S. Ruhil & Paru R. Shah, 2010. "The New Racial Calculus: Electoral Institutions and Black Representation in Local Legislatures," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 107-124, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:54:y:2010:i:1:p:107-124
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00421.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allen McDowell, 2003. "From the help desk: hurdle models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 178-184, June.
    2. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
    3. Meier, Kenneth J. & England, Robert E., 1984. "Black Representation and Educational Policy: Are They Related?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 392-403, June.
    4. Sass, Tim R & Mehay, Stephen L, 1995. "The Voting Rights Act, District Elections, and the Success of Black Candidates in Municipal Elections," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 367-392, October.
    5. Lineberry, Robert L. & Fowler, Edmund P., 1967. "Reformism and Public Policies in American Cities," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 701-716, September.
    6. Engstrom, Richard L. & McDonald, Michael D., 1981. "The Election of Blacks to City Councils: Clarifying the Impact of Electoral Arrangements on the Seats/Population Relationship," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 344-354, June.
    7. Jessica Trounstine & Melody E. Valdini, 2008. "The Context Matters: The Effects of Single‐Member versus At‐Large Districts on City Council Diversity," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 554-569, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Bernini & Giovanni Facchini & Cecilia Testa, 2023. "Race, Representation, and Local Governments in the US South: The Effect of the Voting Rights Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(4), pages 994-1056.
    2. Jean Lacroix, 2023. "Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 764-813.
    3. Carolyn Abott & Asya Magazinnik, 2020. "At‐Large Elections and Minority Representation in Local Government," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 717-733, July.
    4. Andrea Bernini & Giovanni Facchini & Marco Tabellini & Cecilia Testa, 2024. "Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls," Economics Series Working Papers 1035, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Niambi M. Carter & Tyson D. King-Meadows, 2019. "Perceptual Knots and Black Identity Politics: Linked Fate, American Heritage, and Support for Trump Era Immigration Policy," Societies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Andrea Bernini & Giovanni Facchini & Marco Tabellini & Cecilia Testa, 2024. "Sixty years of the Voting Rights Act: progress and pitfalls," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 486-497.

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