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Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions

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  • Jason Brownlee

Abstract

The original studies of “competitive authoritarianism” and “hegemonic authoritarianism” inspected the occurrence of hybrid regimes during the 1990s but stopped short of testing their propensity for democratic change. This article assesses the causal effects of hybrid regimes, and the post–cold war period itself, on regime breakdown and democratization. Using a dataset of 158 regimes from 1975 to 2004, and a discrete measure for transitions to electoral democracy, I find that competitive authoritarian regimes are not especially prone to losing power but are significantly more likely to be followed by electoral democracy: vigorous electoral contestation does not independently subvert authoritarianism, yet it bodes well for democratic prospects once incumbents are overthrown.

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  • Jason Brownlee, 2009. "Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 515-532, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:3:p:515-532
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00384.x
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    1. Brian Lai & Dan Slater, 2006. "Institutions of the Offensive: Domestic Sources of Dispute Initiation in Authoritarian Regimes, 1950–1992," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
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    4. Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans, 2004. "International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 604-619, July.
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    1. Cervellati, Matteo & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 5555, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Abul Kalam Azad, 2012. "Bangladesh: An Umpired Democracy," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 203-213.
    3. Hao Hong & Tsz-Ning Wong, 2020. "Authoritarian election as an incentive scheme," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(3), pages 460-493, July.
    4. David A. Steinberg & Karrie J. Koesel & Nicolas W. Thompson, 2015. "Political Regimes and Currency Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 337-361, November.
    5. Jin Mun Jeong & Dursun Peksen, 2019. "Domestic Institutional Constraints, Veto Players, and Sanction Effectiveness," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(1), pages 194-217, January.
    6. Anthony J. Evans, 2024. "Competitive authoritarianism, informational authoritarianism, and the development of dictatorship: a case study of Belarus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 343-360, March.
    7. Andreas Heinrich & Heiko Pleines, 2018. "The Meaning of ‘Limited Pluralism’ in Media Reporting under Authoritarian Rule," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(2), pages 103-111.

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