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The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post‐Communist Europe

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  • Margit Tavits

Abstract

What conditions help stable patterns of party support to emerge? Using pooled time‐series cross‐section data on election results from 15 East European democracies, the empirical analysis finds that (1) right after a regime change electoral volatility increases while the trend is reversed after democracy has endured for about a decade; (2) ethnic cleavages have no effect on stability while social cleavages affect electoral stability only during economic downturns; (3) both institutions and economic performance influence the stability of party support; however, the effect of the latter diminishes over time when democracies mature.

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  • Margit Tavits, 2005. "The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post‐Communist Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 283-298, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:283-298
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0092-5853.2005.00123.x
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    1. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
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    1. Bishop, Matthew Louis & Corbett, Jack & Veenendaal, Wouter, 2020. "Labor movements and party system development: Why does the Caribbean have stable two-party systems, but the Pacific does not?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Elena Semenova, 2020. "Expert Ministers in New Democracies: Delegation, Communist Legacies, or Technocratic Populism?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(4), pages 590-602.
    3. Sergiu Gherghina & George Jiglău, 2013. "Outside the Government: Why Ethnic Parties Fail to Join the Post-Communist Cabinets," Working Papers 335, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    4. Lupu, Noam, 2024. "Weak Parties and the Inequality Trap in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13481, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Sarkar, Sandip & Dash, Bharatee Bhusana, 2023. "On the measurement of electoral volatility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 119-128.
    6. Michelle Kuenzi & Hafthor Erlingsson & John P. Tuman, 2021. "The Role of International Factors in Electoral Volatility in Latin America: An Examination of Structural Adjustment," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    7. Bunker, Kenneth, 2020. "A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1407-1419.
    8. Fernando Casal Bértoa, 2017. "It’s Been Mostly About Money! A Multi-method Research Approach to the Sources of Institutionalization," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(4), pages 683-714, November.
    9. Lupu, Noam, 2024. "Weak parties and the inequality trap in Latin America," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122759, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. William Bianco & Christopher Kam & Itai Sened & Regina Smyth, 2014. "Party relevance and party survival in new democracies," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 251-261, September.
    11. Muhammad Ahsan Ali Raza & Chen Yan & Hafiz Syed Mohsin Abbas & Atta Ullah, 2021. "Impact of institutional governance and state determinants on foreign direct investment in Asian economies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2596-2613, December.

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