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The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion

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  • Brandice Canes‐Wrone
  • Kenneth W. Shotts

Abstract

How does public opinion affect presidential policymaking? We address this issue by testing a diverse set of hypotheses with data concerning a set of individual policies across time. In particular, the data revolve around presidential budgetary proposals on a set of major policy issues for which there are recurring surveys on citizens' preferences over spending. The analysis suggests that presidents are more responsive to mass opinion on issues that are familiar to citizens in their everyday lives. Also, for reelection‐seeking presidents, responsiveness is shown to depend upon two key political factors. First, presidents are more responsive to public opinion when the next election is imminent. Second, the effect of presidential popularity is nonmonotonic; presidents with average approval ratings are most likely to adopt policy positions congruent with public opinion, whereas presidents with approval ratings that are significantly above or below average have the greatest propensity to take unpopular positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandice Canes‐Wrone & Kenneth W. Shotts, 2004. "The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 690-706, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:48:y:2004:i:4:p:690-706
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00096.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Corazzini & Sebastian Kube & Michel André Maréchal & Antonio Nicolò, 2014. "Elections and Deceptions: An Experimental Study on the Behavioral Effects of Democracy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 579-592, July.
    2. Thiemo Fetzer & Carlo Schwarz, 2021. "Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1717-1741.
    3. René Lindstädt & Ryan Wielen, 2011. "Timely shirking: time-dependent monitoring and its effects on legislative behavior in the U.S. Senate," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 119-148, July.
    4. Kimiko Terai, 2009. "Electoral control over policy-motivated candidates and their policy biases," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 43-64, January.
    5. Christopher Wratil, 2018. "Modes of government responsiveness in the European Union: Evidence from Council negotiation positions," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(1), pages 52-74, March.
    6. Vlaicu, Razvan & Whalley, Alexander, 2016. "Hierarchical accountability in government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 85-99.
    7. Meng, Tianguang & Su, Zheng, 2021. "When top-down meets bottom-up: Local officials and selective responsiveness within fiscal policymaking in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Laron K. Williams & David J. Brulé & Michael Koch, 2010. "War Voting," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(5), pages 442-460, November.
    9. J. S. Maloy, 2014. "Linkages of Electoral Accountability: Empirical Results and Methodological Lessons," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(2), pages 13-27.
    10. Alrik Thiem, 2016. "Analyzing multilevel data with QCA: yet another straightforward procedure," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 121-128, January.
    11. Luca Corazzini, Sebastian Kube, Michel André Maréchal, 2007. "Towards a Behavioral Public Choice: Guilt-Aversion and Accountability in the Lab," ISLA Working Papers 27, ISLA, Centre for research on Latin American Studies and Transition Economies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Massimo Morelli & Richard Van Weelden, 2013. "Ideology and information in policymaking," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(3), pages 412-439, July.

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