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Strategic Misspecification in Regression Models

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  • Curtis S. Signorino
  • Kuzey Yilmaz

Abstract

Common regression models are often structurally inconsistent with strategic interaction. We demonstrate that this “strategic misspecification” is really an issue of structural (or functional form) misspecification. The misspecification can be equivalently written as a form of omitted variable bias, where the omitted variables are nonlinear terms arising from the players' expected utility calculations and often from data aggregation. We characterize the extent of the specification error in terms of model parameters and the data and show that typical regressions models can at times give exactly the opposite inferences versus the true strategic data‐generating process. Researchers are recommended to pay closer attention to their theoretical models, the implications of those models concerning their statistical models, and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis S. Signorino & Kuzey Yilmaz, 2003. "Strategic Misspecification in Regression Models," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(3), pages 551-566, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:47:y:2003:i:3:p:551-566
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-5907.00039
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    Cited by:

    1. Hage, Frank M., 2007. "Constructivism, fuzzy sets and (very) small-N: Revisiting the conditions for communicative action," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 512-521, May.
    2. Sarah E. Croco & Tze Kwang Teo, 2005. "Assessing the Dyadic Approach to Interstate Conflict Processes: A.k.a. “Dangerous†Dyad-Years," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(1), pages 5-18, February.
    3. Thomas T. Holyoke, 2009. "Interest Group Competition and Coalition Formation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 360-375, April.
    4. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2021. "Third-Party Interest, Resource Value, and the Likelihood of Conflict," CSEF Working Papers 631, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 20 Jun 2022.
    5. Sam Jones, 2020. "Testing the Technology of Human Capital Production: A General‐to‐Restricted Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1429-1455, December.
    6. Brilé Anderson & Thomas Bernauer & Stefano Balietti, 2017. "Effects of fairness principles on willingness to pay for climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 447-461, June.
    7. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2024. "Third parties and the non-monotonicity of the resource curse: Evidence from US military influence and oil value," CSEF Working Papers 701, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. Julio J. Guzman, 2019. "The demand for child care subsidies under rationing," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1349-1379, December.
    9. Enzo Lenine, 2020. "Modelling Coalitions: From Concept Formation to Tailoring Empirical Explanations," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12, November.
    10. Enzo Lenine, 2020. "The pulse-like nature of decisions in rational choice theory," Rationality and Society, , vol. 32(4), pages 485-508, November.
    11. Christopher H. Achen, 2005. "Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 327-339, September.
    12. Muhammet A. Bas, 2012. "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(5), pages 490-520, November.
    13. B Glumac & Q Han & W Schaefer, 2018. "A negotiation decision model for public–private partnerships in brownfield redevelopment," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 45(1), pages 145-160, January.
    14. Moritz Osnabrügge, 2015. "The European Commission and the implementation of its legislative programme," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(2), pages 241-261, June.
    15. Elena V McLean, 2015. "A strategic theory of international environmental assistance," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(2), pages 324-347, April.
    16. Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, 2017. "The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(4), pages 406-430, July.
    17. Muhammet Bas & Randall Stone, 2014. "Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, March.
    18. Gretchen Helmke, 2010. "The Origins of Institutional Crises in Latin America," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 737-750, July.
    19. Kristopher W. Ramsay, 2008. "Settling It on the Field," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(6), pages 850-879, December.
    20. Kevin A. Clarke & Curtis S. Signorino, 2010. "Discriminating Methods: Tests for Non‐nested Discrete Choice Models," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58(2), pages 368-388, March.

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