IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v102y2020i3p734-752.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Scott H. Irwin
  • Kristen McCormack
  • James H. Stock

Abstract

The D4 RIN is the tradable compliance certificate for the biomass‐based diesel (BBD) mandate in the renewable fuel standard (RFS). Understanding the price dynamics of the D4 RIN is important for understanding the RFS because its price sets a ceiling on the ethanol RIN (D6) and because some observers have suggested that RIN price fluctuations are too large to be explained by economic theory. We use option pricing theory to develop a model of the D4 RIN in terms of its economic fundamentals: the spread between the price of biodiesel and petroleum diesel and the status of the biodiesel blenders’ tax credit. The resulting D4 fundamental price closely tracks actual D4 prices. We conclude that RIN price volatility arises because of the design of the RFS and intrinsic features of the U.S. fuel supply system.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott H. Irwin & Kristen McCormack & James H. Stock, 2020. "The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 734-752, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:3:p:734-752
    DOI: 10.1002/ajae.12014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12014
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ajae.12014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April.
    2. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    3. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    4. Christopher R. Knittel & Ben S. Meiselman & James H. Stock, 2017. "The Pass-Through of RIN Prices to Wholesale and Retail Fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 1081-1119.
    5. Irwin, Scott, 2014. "Understanding the Behavior of Biodiesel RINs Prices," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-7, October.
    6. Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, 2013. "RINs Gone Wild?," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 3, July.
    7. Gabriel E. Lade & James Bushnell, 2019. "Fuel Subsidy Pass-Through and Market Structure: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 563-592.
    8. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerveni, Maria & Serra, Teresa & Irwin, Scott H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2023. "Price connectedness in U.S. ethanol terminal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Bruce A. Babcock, 2020. "Comment on “The Price of Biodiesel rins and Economic Fundamentals”: US Biofuel Policy Failures Reveal Limitations of Market‐Based Policy Instruments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 753-756, May.
    3. Gabriel E. Lade & C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, 2021. "The Design of Renewable Fuel Mandates and Cost Containment Mechanisms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(2), pages 213-247, June.
    4. Scott, William A., 2025. "Cost and carbon-intensity reducing innovation in biofuels for road transportation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christina Korting & Harry de Gorter & David R Just, 2019. "Who Will Pay for Increasing Biofuel Mandates? Incidence of the Renewable Fuel Standard Given a Binding Blend Wall," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 492-506.
    2. Li, Jing & Stock, James H., 2019. "Cost pass-through to higher ethanol blends at the pump: Evidence from Minnesota gas station data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Burkhardt, Jesse, 2019. "The impact of the Renewable Fuel Standard on US oil refineries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 429-437.
    4. Pouliot, Sebastien & Smith, Aaron & Stock, James H., 2017. "RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals," ISU General Staff Papers 201702220800001049, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2006. "The environment as a factor of production," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 645-662, November.
    6. Richard Newell & William Pizer & Jiangfeng Zhang, 2005. "Managing Permit Markets to Stabilize Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 31(2), pages 133-157, June.
    7. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 127-153, May.
    8. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    9. Stranlund, John K. & Murphy, James J. & Spraggon, John M., 2011. "An experimental analysis of compliance in dynamic emissions markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 414-429.
    10. Feng, Hongli & Zhao, Jinhua, 2006. "Alternative intertemporal permit trading regimes with stochastic abatement costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 24-40, January.
    11. Ken-Ichi Akao & Shunsuke Managi, 2013. "A Tradable Permit System in an Intertemporal Economy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 309-336, July.
    12. Li, Shoude, 2014. "Dynamic optimal control of pollution abatement under emissions permit banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-369.
    13. Erich Muehlegger & Richard L. Sweeney, 2017. "Pass-Through of Own and Rival Cost Shocks: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom," NBER Working Papers 24025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Stranlund, John K. & Murphy, James J. & Spraggon, John M., 2014. "Price controls and banking in emissions trading: An experimental evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 71-86.
    15. Vincent Steenberghe, 2005. "Carbon dioxide abatement costs and permit price: exploring the impact of banking and the role of future commitments," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(2), pages 75-107, September.
    16. Hasegawa, Makoto & Salant, Stephen, 2012. "Cap-and-Trade Programs under Delayed Compliance," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-32, Resources for the Future.
    17. Fell, Harrison & MacKenzie, Ian A. & Pizer, William A., 2012. "Prices versus quantities versus bankable quantities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 607-623.
    18. Aude Pommeret & Katheline Schubert, 2018. "Intertemporal Emission Permits Trading Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(1), pages 73-97, September.
    19. Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles & Palmer, Karen & Paul, Anthony & Shobe, William, 2018. "Quantities with Prices," RFF Working Paper Series 18-08, Resources for the Future.
    20. Coleman, Andrew, 2018. "Forest-based carbon sequestration, and the role of forward, futures, and carbon-lending markets: A comparative institutions approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 95-104.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:3:p:734-752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.