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Methodologies for ex ante projections of adoption rates for agbiotech products: Lessons learned from rBST

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  • W. Lesser

    (Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853)

  • John Bernard

    (Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853)

  • Kaafee Billah

    (Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853)

Abstract

Pre- and post-release adoption studies for rBST are evaluated for insights into improving ex ante projection methodologies. The conclusion is drawn that user surveys can provide reasonable projections, but the following factors require consideration. The sigmoid curve fits the data well, but the standard experiential learning justification needs reconsideration. Attitudinal variables can enhance the discrimination among users and nonusers, but useful attitudinal questions are not well developed at this point. Rents are a major determinant of use, but projecting rents and shares a priori is a difficult task. Management requirements are a significant factor in use, so that proxies for management quality need improvement. And finally, anti-biotech attitudes can be most effective if products are labeled so that labeling becomes a key element in forecasting use. [EconLit cites: Q160, Q130] © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Lesser & John Bernard & Kaafee Billah, 1999. "Methodologies for ex ante projections of adoption rates for agbiotech products: Lessons learned from rBST," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 149-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:15:y:1999:i:2:p:149-162
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6297(199921)15:2<149::AID-AGR1>3.0.CO;2-T
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McClelland, John & Kuchler, Fred & Reilly, John, 1991. "Implications of New Technology for the Livestock Sector: Animal Growth Hormones," Agricultural Information Bulletins 309579, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Caswell, Margriet F. & Fuglie, Keith O. & Klotz, Cassandra A., 1994. "Agricultural Biotechnology: An Economic Perspective," Agricultural Economic Reports 262025, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Bradford L. Barham, 1996. "Adoption of a Politicized Technology: bST and Wisconsin Dairy Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1056-1063.
    4. Kaiser, Harry M. & Scherer, Clifford W. & Barbano, David M., 1992. "Consumer Perceptions And Attitudes Towards Bovine Somatotropin," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-11, April.
    5. Lyson, Thomas A. & Tauer, Loren W. & Welsh, Rick, 1995. "Factors Related to the Adoption of rBST Among a Population of Farmers in Ontario County, New York," Staff Papers 121200, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy D. Foltz & Hsiu-Hui Chang, 2002. "The Adoption and Profitability of rbST on Connecticut Dairy Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1021-1032.
    2. Demont, Matty & Tollens, Eric, 1999. "The Economics Of Agricultural Biotechnology: Historical And Analytical Framework," Working Papers 31845, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centre for Agricultural and Food Economics.
    3. Kuehne, Geoff & Llewellyn, Rick & Pannell, David J. & Wilkinson, Roger & Dolling, Perry & Ouzman, Jackie & Ewing, Mike, 2017. "Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 115-125.
    4. Qiangbing Chen & Yali Liu, 2011. "The Diffusion of a Process Innovation with Gently Declining Production Cost," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 109-129, June.
    5. Butler, Leslie J. & Henriques, Irene, 2001. "Adoption and Diffusion of Biotechnology: rbST in California," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125548, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Duncan, Anthony & Richardson, James W. & Schwart, Robert B., Jr., 2004. "Probabilities of Success for Netherlands Dairy Farmers Moving Operations to the U.S," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20302, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. William D. McBride & Sara Short & Hisham El-Osta, 2004. "The Adoption and Impact of Bovine Somatotropin on U.S. Dairy Farms," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 472-488.
    8. Beatrice W. Muriithi & Nancy G. Gathogo & Gracious M. Diiro & Samira A. Mohamed & Sunday Ekesi, 2020. "Potential Adoption of Integrated Pest Management Strategy for Suppression of Mango Fruit Flies in East Africa: An Ex Ante and Ex Post Analysis in Ethiopia and Kenya," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    9. McBride, William D. & Short, Sara D. & El-Osta, Hisham S., 2002. "Production And Financial Impacts Of The Adoption Of Bovine Somatotropin On U.S. Dairy Farms," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19908, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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