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Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy 2017 to 2021

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  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Serguei Kaniovski

Abstract

Following the rather sluggish economic growth during the last years, demand and output growth in Austria is expected to accelerate in 2017. In the current year, GDP growth should attain 2 percent followed by an annual average 1.7 percent till 2021, which is broadly in line with the euro area average. Stronger activity will allow employment to expand by 1.6 percent in 2017 and by an average 1.3 percent p.a. over the forecast horizon. With labour supply growth temporarily abating, the unemployment rate should stabilise at 8.9 percent of the dependent labour force (national definition). After 2019, the jobless rate is likely to head up again, reaching 9.1 percent by 2021. Consumer price inflation should remain subdued over the entire period, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, thereby significantly narrowing the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area. In view of the projected cyclical fluctuations and the underlying policy assumptions, general government finances are projected to balance, both in nominal (Maastricht) and structural terms by the end of the forecast period. General government debt, as percent of nominal GDP, is projected to head down as from 2016, by a total 12 percentage points to below 72 percent by 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski, 2017. "Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy 2017 to 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(5), pages 43-49, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2017:i:5:p:43-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Josef Baumgartner & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2016. "Moderate Economic Growth – Unemployment Remaining High. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(19), pages 185-201, December.
    2. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2016. "First Increase in Private Consumption in Three Years. Economic Outlook for 2016 and 2017," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(13), pages 125-135, October.
    3. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2016. "Konsum wächst erstmals seit drei Jahren wieder. Prognose für 2016 und 2017," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(10), pages 683-695, October.
    4. Christian Glocker, 2017. "Business Cycle Upswing in Austria. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(4), pages 29-42, May.
    5. Josef Baumgartner & Fritz Breuss & Serguei Kaniovski, 2004. "WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 241, WIFO.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Url, 2017. "Private Insurance Premium Income Declined in 2016," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 22(14), pages 133-142, September.

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