IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/monber/y2014i2p117-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Verhaltenes Wirtschaftswachstum, hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und Budgetkonsolidierung prägen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Markus Leibrecht

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Nach der Wachstumsdelle von Ende 2012 bis Mitte 2013 entwickelt sich die heimische Wirtschaft mittelfristig mäßig dynamisch (2014/2018 +1,8% p. a.). Insbesondere wächst der Konsum verhalten, da die Sparneigung der privaten Haushalte weiter zunimmt. Die leichte Expansion ermöglicht zwar eine Ausweitung der Beschäftigung (2014/2018 +0,8% p. a.), diese wird aber nicht ausreichen, um die Arbeitslosigkeit deutlich zu senken, da das in- und ausländische Arbeitskräfteangebot ähnlich stark zunimmt. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte nach einem Höchstwert von 7,9% (gemäß AMS-Definition) im Jahr 2015 bis zum Ende des Prognose¬horizonts nur leicht auf 7,7% zurückgehen. Der Inflationsdruck bleibt mittelfristig gering, die Inflationsrate wird durchschnittlich 1,9% betragen. Ein ausgeglichener Staatshaushalt (sowohl strukturell als auch nach Maastricht-Definition) wird durch das in der Prognose unterstellte strukturelle Konsolidierungsszenario (2 Mrd. € ab 2014, zusätzlich 1 Mrd. € ab 2015) nicht erreicht.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Markus Leibrecht, 2014. "Verhaltenes Wirtschaftswachstum, hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und Budgetkonsolidierung prägen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2018," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(2), pages 117-131, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2014:i:2:p:117-131
    Note: With English abstract.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/47135
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Klär, 2013. "Potential economic variables and actual economic policies in Europe," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 48(1), pages 33-40, January.
    2. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url, 2013. "Outputlücke und strukturelles Defizit für Österreich. Kritische Analyse der Methode der Europäischen Kommission," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 86(9), pages 737-751, September.
    3. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    4. Gustav Horn & Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2007. "Estimating Germany's Potential Output," IMK Working Paper 02-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2013. "Bundesvoranschlag 2013: Konsolidierungspfad mit Unsicherheiten," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 86(1), pages 63-79, January.
    6. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    7. Fritz Breuss, 2013. "Effects of Austria's EU Membership," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 18(2), pages 103-114, July.
    8. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Josef Baumgartner & Fritz Breuss & Serguei Kaniovski, 2004. "WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 241, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2015. "Wirtschaftswachstum weiterhin verhalten, Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt hoch. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(1), pages 51-66, January.
    2. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Mäßiges Wirtschaftswachstum mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 779-796, October.
    3. Wifo, 2015. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 10/2015," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), October.
    4. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2015. "Economic Growth Remains Subdued, with High Unemployment Persisting. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2019," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(12), pages 130-144, September.
    5. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    6. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 193965, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Achim Truger, 2014. "Austerity, cyclical adjustment and the remaining leeway for expansionary fiscal policies in the Euro area," IMK Working Paper 140-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2015. "Moderate Growth with High Unemployment. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2020," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(27), pages 303-319, December.
    9. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "The Structural Balance for Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages 3-13, August.
    12. Ewald Nowotny, 2014. "Towards a European perspective on financial integration," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Valerie Vandermeulen & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Trend Capital when Goods and Capital Market Frictions Exist," European Economy - Discussion Papers 145, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Hayk Karapetyan, 2019. "Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia," Working Papers 12, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    15. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
    16. William R. White, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy a Science? The Interaction of Theory and Practice over the Last 50 Years," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 3, pages 73-116, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    17. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    18. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
    19. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    20. Gerba, Eddie & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rubio, Margarita, 2024. "Inspecting cross-border macro-financial mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2014:i:2:p:117-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.