IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/wblltn/y2015i2p14-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Revisions to the Quarterly National Accounts Since the Introduction of Flash Estimates in 2005

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Bierbaumer
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl
  • Marcus Scheiblecker

Abstract

Quarterly national account estimates are subject to revisions over time, to account for newly available data and new methods of computation, as well as a revision of their underlying data source. In economically turbulent periods, such as the financial and economic crisis of 2008-09, revisions can be expected to be more pronounced. This is true in particular for the first publication of quarterly national accounts (the so-called Flash Estimates). This analysis finds that revisions of the Flash Estimates compared to their final value were neither biased in any direction nor large in their scope. Moreover, the direction of revisions cannot be forecasted. Accordingly, the first publication shows a high degree of reliability in terms of expected revisions, in spite of the reduction in its publication date (from 70 days to 45 days after the end of a given quarter). The crisis years of 2008 and 2009 had the expected impact in the revisions: during the crisis, the downward course of the GDP was significantly underestimated. Nevertheless the upper turning point was correctly dated and did not have to be corrected even after several revision runs. In a similar vein, the duration of the contraction and the start of the recovery were found to be quite robust vis-à-vis new calculations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2015. "Analysis of the Revisions to the Quarterly National Accounts Since the Introduction of Flash Estimates in 2005," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(2), pages 14-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2015:i:2:p:14-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/50942
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Petra Sauer & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2009. "Analyse von Revisionen der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(10), pages 749-766, October.
    2. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marcus Scheiblecker & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Michael Wüger, 2007. "Quarterly National Accounts Inventory of Austria. Description of Applied Methods and Data Sources," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37249.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    6. Mr. Manik L. Shrestha & Mr. Marco Marini, 2013. "Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/060, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2014. "Revisionsanalyse der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung seit Einführung der Schnellschätzung im Jahr 2005," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(10), pages 693-710, October.
    2. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Petra Sauer, 2009. "An Evaluation of Revisions and Quality Aspects of Austrian Quarterly GDP Publications," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37201.
    3. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4bhjotvnvo9308hhu8rqo497o9 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2005. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 61-92, Springer.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2q9catktmn91sabau2l9qji1as is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
    9. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1989. "Production, sales, and the change in inventories : An identity that doesn't add up," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-51, July.
    10. Ducoudré, Bruno & Hubert, Paul & Tabarly, Guilhem, 2020. "The state-dependence of output revisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Borup, Daniel & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2022. "Asset pricing with data revisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    12. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    13. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2008. "Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Thomas A. Knetsch & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Dealing with Benchmark Revisions in Real‐Time Data: The Case of German Production and Orders Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 209-235, April.
    15. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4bhjotvnvo9308hhu8rqo497o9 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hara, Naoko & Ichiue, Hibiki, 2011. "Real-time analysis on Japan's labor productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 107-130, June.
    18. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
    20. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2q9catktmn91sabau2l9qji1as is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Mr. Manik L. Shrestha & Mr. Marco Marini, 2013. "Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/060, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
    24. Cecilia Frale & Valentina Raponi, 2011. "Revisions in ocial data and forecasting," Working Papers LuissLab 1194, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wblltn:y:2015:i:2:p:14-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.