IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/monber/y2019i8p583-597.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Das vernachlässigte Massensparen. Die wirtschaftspolitischen Folgen zunehmender Intermediation

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Tichy

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Das gegenwärtig niedrige Zinsniveau ergibt sich vor allem daraus, dass die Sparpläne in Europa und Südostasien die Investitionspläne übertreffen; die expansive Geldpolitik verstärkte diesen Trend nur etwas. Die Sparüberschüsse sind primär Folge des Massensparens, das den Konsum tendenziell dämpft und zur Intermediation durch den Kreditapparat zwingt; dabei entstehen zwangsläufig Probleme der Fristen- und Risikentransformation sowie der Verschuldung. Sie tragen zur Instabilität des Systems bei. Durch Massensparen bedingte Sparüberschüsse traten bereits im letzten Viertel des 19. Jahrhunderts auf, wurden aber durch Kriege und Inflation beseitigt, bevor sie ernstere Probleme aufwerfen konnten. Spätestens seit dem Jahr 2000 dämpfen die Sparüberschüsse jedoch Konsum und Wachstum; die Verschuldungsbereitschaft der Wirtschaft ist angesichts der geringen Wachstumsraten begrenzt, und die Staatsverschuldung wird tendenziell eingedämmt. Daran dürfte sich in absehbarer Zukunft wenig ändern. Der Beitrag zeigt die Problematik anhand der österreichischen Entwicklung der letzten 180 Jahre und diskutiert Lösungsansätze.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2019. "Das vernachlässigte Massensparen. Die wirtschaftspolitischen Folgen zunehmender Intermediation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(8), pages 583-597, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2019:i:8:p:583-597
    Note: With English abstract.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/61922
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisack, Noëmie & Sajedi, Rana & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Demographic trends and the real interest rate," Bank of England working papers 701, Bank of England.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    3. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 2006. "The Age–Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Ronald Dore, 2008. "Financialization of the global economy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 17(6), pages 1097-1112, December.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Global imbalances: recent developments and prospects," Speech 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Hans Seidel, 2017. "Wirtschaft und Wirtschaftspolitik in der Kreisky-Ära," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60441, March.
    7. Hans Seidel, 2005. "Österreichs Wirtschaft und Wirtschaftspolitik nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25482, March.
    8. Janet Yellen, 2018. "Comments on Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 573-579.
    9. Florian Urbschat & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 6709, CESifo.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    11. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 297-333, February.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    13. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    14. Pirmin Fessler & Martin Schürz, 2017. "Zur Verteilung der Sparquoten in Österreich," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 13-33.
    15. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    16. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    17. Felix Butschek, 1999. "Statistische Reihen zur österreichischen Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Die österreichische Wirtschaft seit der Industriellen Revolution," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 8206, March.
    18. Gunther Tichy, 2019. "Niedrigzinsen: EZB-Politik oder ökonomisches Gesetz? [Low Interest Rates: ECB Policy or Economic Law?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(3), pages 203-209, March.
    19. Gunther Tichy, 2019. "Die europäische Schuldenaversion. Schuldengrenze versus Investitionen?," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88.
    20. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    21. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers in Economics 37365, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    22. Alexander Styhre, 2016. "Corporate Governance, The Firm and Investor Capitalism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16918.
    23. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebasitan, 2017. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area - An Event Study Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168135, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:sep11 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "The United States-Euro Area Growth Gap Puzzle," WIFO Working Papers 541, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gunther Tichy, 2019. "The Neglected Mass Saving. The Economic Consequences of Increasing Intermediation," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 24(17), pages 153-166, December.
    2. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    3. Horst, Maximilian & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union," DICE Discussion Papers 346, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    4. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 337-383, September.
    5. Günter Coenen & Carlos Montes‐Galdón & Frank Smets, 2023. "Effects of State‐Dependent Forward Guidance, Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 825-858, June.
    6. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2021. "On Public Spending and Economic Unions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 122-154, March.
    7. Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa & Krahé, Max & Schneemelcher, Pola & Schuster, Florian & Hilbert, Viola & Meyer, Henrika, 2021. "A new fiscal policy for Germany," Papers 277884, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    8. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    9. Cormac Cawley & Marie Finnegan, 2019. "Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, September.
    10. Gan‐Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies in a commodity‐exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4627-4654, October.
    11. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    13. Cawley, Cormac & Finnegan, Marie, 2019. "Transmission channels of central bank asset purchases in the Irish economy," MPRA Paper 96547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Effects of QE on sovereign bond spreads through the safe asset channel," DNB Working Papers 647, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Kersten Kellermann & Carsten-Henning Schlag, 2021. "Überakkumulation oder Investitionslücke? [Over Accumulation or Investment Gap?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(12), pages 964-970, December.
    16. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.
    17. Stephanie Titzck & Jan Willem van den End, 2021. "The impact of size, composition and duration of the central bank balance sheet on inflation expectations and market prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(12), pages 1186-1209, August.
    18. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    19. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2021. "QE in the euro area: Has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2019:i:8:p:583-597. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.