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Wachstumsbeschleunigung in der EU, Abschwächung in den USA, Japan bleibt Nachzügler. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2004

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Eine merkliche Dämpfung des Aktienbooms und damit auch der Konsumnachfrage wird 2000 und 2001 in den USA eine Abschwächung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach sich ziehen, im gesamten Prognosezeitraum 2000/2004 dürfte das BIP um durchschnittlich 2,5% pro Jahr expandieren. In der EU setzt sich hingegen der Aufschwung bis 2001 fort, die mittelfristige Wachstumsrate fällt mit 2,6% pro Jahr zwischen 2000 und 2004 deutlich höher aus als in den neunziger Jahren. Japan (+2,1% pro Jahr) bleibt weiterhin gegenüber den USA und der EU zurück. Insgesamt realisieren die Industrieländer bis 2004 ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,4% pro Jahr. Infolge der Erdölverteuerung beschleunigt sich die Expansion in den erdölexportierenden Ländern auf 3,5% pro Jahr, in den anderen Entwicklungsländern nimmt das BIP zwischen 2000 und 2004 um 6,0% pro Jahr und in den früheren Planwirtschaften Osteuropas um 3,9% pro Jahr zu. Das Welthandelsvolumen dürfte um durchschnittlich 6,6% steigen. Das Anziehen der Rohstoffpreise, ein niedriger Realzins für internationale Schulden sowie weitere Marktanteilsgewinne im Export ermöglicht den Entwicklungsländern und Oststaaten eine besonders kräftige Importausweitung.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Wachstumsbeschleunigung in der EU, Abschwächung in den USA, Japan bleibt Nachzügler. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2004," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 73(1), pages 27-39, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:1:p:27-39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 1996. "Zinssatz, Investitionsdynamik, Wachstumsrate und Staatsverschuldung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2816.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Die Kaufkraft des Euro innerhalb und außerhalb der Währungsunion," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13652.
    3. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
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