IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/monber/y2000i1p27-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wachstumsbeschleunigung in der EU, Abschwächung in den USA, Japan bleibt Nachzügler. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2004

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Eine merkliche Dämpfung des Aktienbooms und damit auch der Konsumnachfrage wird 2000 und 2001 in den USA eine Abschwächung des Wirtschaftswachstums nach sich ziehen, im gesamten Prognosezeitraum 2000/2004 dürfte das BIP um durchschnittlich 2,5% pro Jahr expandieren. In der EU setzt sich hingegen der Aufschwung bis 2001 fort, die mittelfristige Wachstumsrate fällt mit 2,6% pro Jahr zwischen 2000 und 2004 deutlich höher aus als in den neunziger Jahren. Japan (+2,1% pro Jahr) bleibt weiterhin gegenüber den USA und der EU zurück. Insgesamt realisieren die Industrieländer bis 2004 ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,4% pro Jahr. Infolge der Erdölverteuerung beschleunigt sich die Expansion in den erdölexportierenden Ländern auf 3,5% pro Jahr, in den anderen Entwicklungsländern nimmt das BIP zwischen 2000 und 2004 um 6,0% pro Jahr und in den früheren Planwirtschaften Osteuropas um 3,9% pro Jahr zu. Das Welthandelsvolumen dürfte um durchschnittlich 6,6% steigen. Das Anziehen der Rohstoffpreise, ein niedriger Realzins für internationale Schulden sowie weitere Marktanteilsgewinne im Export ermöglicht den Entwicklungsländern und Oststaaten eine besonders kräftige Importausweitung.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Wachstumsbeschleunigung in der EU, Abschwächung in den USA, Japan bleibt Nachzügler. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2004," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 73(1), pages 27-39, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:1:p:27-39
    Note: With English abstract.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/13609
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 1996. "Zinssatz, Investitionsdynamik, Wachstumsrate und Staatsverschuldung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2816, March.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Die Kaufkraft des Euro innerhalb und außerhalb der Währungsunion," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13652, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Koudela, Thomas & Richters, Oliver & Freydorf, Christoph & Schuster, Ludwig, 2012. "Wachstumszwang in der Geldwirtschaft? Theoretische Erwägungen," EconStor Research Reports 237053, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2006. "Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 324-344, June.
    5. Mauro Boianovsky, 2004. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: From Hicks to Krugman," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 92-126, Supplemen.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    7. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 787-798, June.
    8. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    9. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    12. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    13. Jose A. Zabala & Maria A. Prats, 2020. "The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 794-809, March.
    14. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    15. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    16. Koichi Hamada & Asahi Noguchi, 2005. "The Role of Preconceived Ideas in Macroeconomic Policy: Japan's Experiences in the Two Deflationary Periods," Working Papers 908, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    17. Christopher Bowdler & Amar Radia, 2012. "Unconventional monetary policy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 603-621, WINTER.
    18. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    19. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    20. Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:1:p:27-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.