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Konsumwachstum fiskalisch gestützt. Weihnachtsgeschäft erreicht reales Vorjahresniveau knapp

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  • Michael Wüger

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Steuersenkungen wie jene zum 1. Jänner 2000 stützen die Konsumnachfrage, obwohl nicht die gesamte hinzugewonnene Liquidität kurzfristig nachfragewirksam und das Sparen relativ stärker begünstigt wird. Ähnlich wie bei guter Konjunktur steigt die Sparquote nach einer Steuersenkung zumindest kurzfristig. Konterkariert wird der Effekt dieser Verringerung der direkten Steuerbelastung heuer durch die starke Erhöhung mancher Energiepreise (insbesondere von Treibstoffen und Heizöl) und die Anhebung indirekter Steuern in der zweiten Jahreshälfte, die die Realeinkommen und damit die reale Konsumnachfrage dämpfen. Da der Energiekonsum zumindest kurzfristig ein "Zwangskonsum" ist, sinkt in Phasen steigender Energiepreise in der Regel die Sparquote. Die Konsumnachfrage war in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2000 sehr kräftig, weil die Effekte der Steuerreform und der guten Konjunktur die Auswirkungen der Energieverteuerung dominierten. Davon profitierten auch die Einzelhandelsumsätze. Seit Jahresmitte verläuft der Geschäftsgang des Einzelhandels gedämpfter, was keine sehr optimistischen Erwartungen für das Weihnachtsgeschäft zulässt.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wüger, 2000. "Konsumwachstum fiskalisch gestützt. Weihnachtsgeschäft erreicht reales Vorjahresniveau knapp," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 73(12), pages 727-735, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:12:p:727-735
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    References listed on IDEAS

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