IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/suvges/v32y2022i4p58-80n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Convergence or Divergence in Economic Growth of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

Author

Listed:
  • Shah Imtiyaz Ahmad

    (Faculty in Economics, Cluster University of Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Haq Imtiyaz ul

    (Faculty in Economics, University of Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

Abstract

In this study, the issue of economic growth and Convergence in the 12 countries of the CIS region has been investigated thoroughly for 27 years, from 1991–2017. The paper examines the absolute, sigma and conditional Convergence of the CIS region. Conditional Convergence is examined through the augmented Solow and extended Solow models. During the study period, the empirical results confirm no significant negative correlation between the initial ratio of the countries per capita GDP and the average yearly growth rate. Thus, indicating the absence of absolute β convergence across the CIS economies during 1991–2017. The results of the sigma convergence are consistent with the results derived from the absolute convergence model. Referring to the augmented Solow model estimations, we found the rate of conditional β-convergence (coefficient of initial GDP per capita) of value 0.028 among members of the CIS region after controlling GDP per capita, physical and human capital and population growth have important contributions to make in the growth and Convergence of countries. In Solow extended growth regression, the initial GDP per capita coefficient is 0.33. Therefore, besides the initial level of per capita income, physical and human capital and population growth, other factors have important contributions to make to the growth and Convergence of countries of CIS.

Suggested Citation

  • Shah Imtiyaz Ahmad & Haq Imtiyaz ul, 2022. "Convergence or Divergence in Economic Growth of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 58-80, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:suvges:v:32:y:2022:i:4:p:58-80:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/sues-2022-0019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2022-0019
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/sues-2022-0019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Michael Connolly & Cheng Li, 2016. "Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 386-395, October.
    3. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    4. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    5. Michael Connolly & Cheng Li, 2016. "Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 386-395, October.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Erich Streissler, 1979. "Growth Models As Diffusion Processes," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 251-269, February.
    8. Mustafa Gömleksiz & Ahmet Şahbaz & Birol Mercan, 2017. "Regional Economic Convergence in Turkey: Does the Government Really Matter for?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, July.
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    10. Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 2000. "GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 321-340.
    11. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    12. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    13. S. Dobson & C. Ramlogan, 2002. "Economic Growth and Convergence in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 83-104.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    16. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    17. repec:bla:kyklos:v:32:y:1979:i:1/2:p:251-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Erich Streissler, 1979. "Growth Models As Diffusion Processes:," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 571-586, August.
    19. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    20. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    21. Unal, Umut, 2014. "Economic Growth and Convergence across the OIC Countries," MPRA Paper 81439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Hongyi Li & Heng-fu Zou, 2002. "Inflation, Growth, and Income Distribution: A Cross-Country Study," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 85-101, May.
    23. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    24. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    25. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    26. Guseh, James S., 1997. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Political-Economy Framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 175-192, January.
    27. repec:bla:kyklos:v:32:y:1979:i:3:p:571-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    29. Grier, Kevin & Grier, Robin, 2007. "Only income diverges: A neoclassical anomaly," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 25-45, September.
    30. Michal Havlat & David Havrlant & Robert Kuenzel & Allen Monks, 2018. "Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia," European Economy - Economic Briefs 034, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    31. Alfredo M. Pereira & Zhenhui Xu, 2000. "Export Growth and Domestic Performance," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 60-73, February.
    32. Derek D. Headey & Andrew Hodge, 2009. "The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta‐Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 221-248, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jochen Hartwig, 2009. "A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth," KOF Working papers 09-231, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Michael Peneder & Karl Aiginger & Gernot Hutschenreiter & Markus Marterbauer, 2001. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 20668.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    5. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Daniel Oto Peralías & Daniel Oto-Peralías & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Tracing the Link between Government Size and Growth: The Role of Public Sector Quality," EcoMod2012 4015, EcoMod.
    7. Ejike Udeogu & Shampa Roy-Mukherjee & Uzochukwu Amakom, 2021. "Does Increasing Product Complexity and Diversity Cause Economic Growth in the Long-Run? A GMM Panel VAR Evidence," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    8. Hartwig, Jochen, 2014. "Testing the Uzawa–Lucas model with OECD data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 144-156.
    9. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51, July.
    10. Mohl, P. & Hagen, T., 2010. "Do EU structural funds promote regional growth? New evidence from various panel data approaches," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 353-365, September.
    11. Haftu, Girmay Giday, 2019. "Information communications technology and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A panel data approach," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 88-99.
    12. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    13. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    14. Aysit Tansel & Ceyhan Ozturk & Erkan Erdil, 2021. "The Impact of Body Mass Index on Growth, Schooling, Productivity, and Savings: A Cross-Country Study," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2118, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    17. Hongbin Li & Zheyu Yang & Xianguo Yao & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Entrepreneurship and Growth: Evidence from China," Discussion Papers 00022, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    18. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Doytch, Nadia, 2022. "The impact of ICT patents on economic growth: An international evidence," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5).
    19. Andreas Bergh & Magnus Henrekson, 2011. "Government Size And Growth: A Survey And Interpretation Of The Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 872-897, December.
    20. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah & Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, 2024. "Knowledge Economy and the Economic Performance of African Countries: A Seemingly Unrelated and Recursive Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 110-143, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CIS; growth; absolute Convergence; sigma convergence; conditional Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:suvges:v:32:y:2022:i:4:p:58-80:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.