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Integration and Cointegration of Apartment Prices on the Primary and Secondary Market in Szczecin in the Years 2006-2022

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  • Doszyń Mariusz

    (University of Szczecin, Institute of Economics and Finance, Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Aleja Papieża Jana Pawła II 22A, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to verify hypotheses regarding integration and cointegration (relation) of mean apartment prices on the primary and secondary market in Szczecin. Both transaction prices as well as offer prices of apartments were investigated. The analysis period encompasses the years of 2006 – 2022 (quarterly data). An ADF test was employed to examine the integration of time series, taking into consideration a deterministic component in the form of a quadratic function. Only the time series of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the primary market proved to be integrated in the first degree. The time series of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the secondary market were not integrated, they occurred to be trend stationary series. A two-step Engle-Granger test was employed to analyze the cointegration of time series, which confirmed the cointegration of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the primary market. The relations between individual price types were examined with the use of a procedure which entailed analyzing (with an ADF test) difference stationarity between prices. From the empirical studies it arises that, in Szczecin, transaction and offer prices on the primary market follow one another. On the secondary market, offer and transaction prices are trend stationary and they converge. On the other hand, prices on the primary market diverge from prices on the secondary market (the primary market diverges from the secondary market). This concerns both offer prices as well as transaction prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Doszyń Mariusz, 2023. "Integration and Cointegration of Apartment Prices on the Primary and Secondary Market in Szczecin in the Years 2006-2022," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 36-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:31:y:2023:i:4:p:36-44:n:6
    DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matysiak, George & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2019. "A Panel Analysis of Polish Regional Cities Residential Price Convergence in the Primary Market," MPRA Paper 94660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. G. Donald Jud & Dan T. Winkler, 2002. "The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 29-46.
    4. Robert Leszczynski & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2017. "An analysis of the primary and secondary housing market in Poland: evidence from the 17 largest cities," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 136-151.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integration; cointegration; apartment prices; primary market secondary market; ADF test; Engle – Granger test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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