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An analysis of the primary and secondary housing market in Poland: evidence from the 17 largest cities

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Leszczynski

    (Warsaw School of Economics and Narodowy Bank Polski, Regional Branch in Bialystok, Bialystok, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Olszewski

    (Warsaw School of Economics and Narodowy Bank Polski, Financial Stability Department, Warszawa, Poland)

Abstract

We analyse the determinants of prices of flats that are bought on the primary (new construction) and secondary markets (existing stock) in the 17 largest cities in Poland during the 2002–2015 period. We find that prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as income growth and drop in the unemployment or real interest rate. Interestingly, prices in the secondary market react strongly to those fundamentals than to prices in the primary market. Especially, the reaction to the real interest rate is more than twice as high. The most likely buyers on the secondary market are first-time buyers with little own capital, and need a large mortgage. On the other hand, those who buy housing in the primary market quite often sell their old flat, so they only need to acquire the difference. Our finding indicates that the primary and secondary markets need to be analysed separately.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Leszczynski & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2017. "An analysis of the primary and secondary housing market in Poland: evidence from the 17 largest cities," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 136-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:136-151
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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1406099X.2017.1344482
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Olszewski & Jacek Łaszek & Joanna Waszczuk, 2023. "An unequal reaction of housing starts to house prices in different regions of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(4), pages 437-458.
    2. George A. Matysiak & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2019. "A panel analysis of Polish regional cities: residential price convergence in the primary market," NBP Working Papers 316, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Brzezicka, Justyna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2019. "Analysis of the filtering process and the ripple effect on the primary and secondary housing market in Warsaw, Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Brzezicka Justyna, 2022. "The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(1), pages 84-98, March.
    5. Mateusz Tomal, 2022. "Testing for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents using robust methodology: evidence from Polish provincial capitals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 2023-2055, April.
    6. Doszyń Mariusz, 2023. "Integration and Cointegration of Apartment Prices on the Primary and Secondary Market in Szczecin in the Years 2006-2022," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 36-44, December.
    7. Tomal Mateusz, 2019. "The Impact of Macro Factors on Apartment Prices in Polish Counties: A Two-Stage Quantile Spatial Regression Approach," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 27(4), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; house prices; existing stock and new construction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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