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Real Estate Market Price Prediction Model of Istanbul

Author

Listed:
  • Tekin Mert

    (Business Analytics, University of Warwick, United Kingdom)

  • Sari Irem Ucal

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey)

Abstract

The Turkish Housing Market has experienced a steep increase in prices. Individual and corporate investors now possess tools to estimate the real estate evaluation while using smaller amounts of data with traditional techniques. Not having an analytical approach to evaluate the price of real estate could cause the investor to lose considerable amounts of money, especially in the case of individual investors. This study aims to determine how different machine learning algorithms with real market data can improve this process. To be able to test this, over 30000 lines of housing market data with over 13 variables is scraped. Data is cleansed, manipulated and visualized, while predictive models such as linear regression, polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, and XGboost are created and compared according to the CRISP-DM framework. The results show that using complex techniques to create machine learning models could improve the accuracy in predicting the listing prices of houses. This paper aims to: – analyze the effects of using a real and relatively large amount of data, – determine the main variables that contribute to the evaluation of an estate, – compare different machine learning models to find the optimal one for the real estate market, – create an accurate model to predict the value of any house on the Istanbul market.

Suggested Citation

  • Tekin Mert & Sari Irem Ucal, 2022. "Real Estate Market Price Prediction Model of Istanbul," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:30:y:2022:i:4:p:1-16:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/remav-2022-0025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price prediction; machine learning; real estate market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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