IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/poicbe/v18y2024i1p3143-3166n1043.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Multiple Crises on the Economy. A Comparative Analysis of GFC, COVID-19 and the Ukraine War Period

Author

Listed:
  • Ene Giorgiana-Roxana

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the correlation between the gross domestic product (GDP) and its components as well as the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) total, electricity and gas by deploying principal components analysis and factor analysis on wards linkage and compare the results for GFC period, COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine period for EU27, Romania, Greece, Italy and Hungary. The result obtained show that each crisis has its specificity given their different source, GFC was borne in the financial system the COVID-19 crisis in the medical crisis and the war in Ukraine a military one and that starting with 2020 the economy has faced multiple crisis. Government consumption is found to be one of the significant variables for all crisis as a result of the efforts made by the governments to limit the negative effects of the GFC, pandemic and the war in Ukraine and HICP electricity and HICP gas due to the impact of COVID-19 on the supply chain prior to the war in Ukraine and the shortage of personnel, as well due to the sanctions applied to Russia and the fact that it is the main exporter for the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Ene Giorgiana-Roxana, 2024. "The Impact of Multiple Crises on the Economy. A Comparative Analysis of GFC, COVID-19 and the Ukraine War Period," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 3143-3166.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:poicbe:v:18:y:2024:i:1:p:3143-3166:n:1043
    DOI: 10.2478/picbe-2024-0258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2024-0258
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/picbe-2024-0258?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2023. "The cost of war: Impact of sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 305-319.
    2. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Garcia, Pablo & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lenarčič, Črt & Lozej, Matija & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2023. "Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    6. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Geopolitical Risks and the Predictability of Regional Oil Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201860, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Zhang, Wenting & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    10. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    11. Karim Belcaid & Ahmed El Ghini, 2019. "Spillover Effects among European, the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 525-548, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Liu, Min & Liu, Hong-Fei & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "An empirical study on the response of the energy market to the shock from the artificial intelligence industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    3. Wang, Gang-Jin & Wan, Li & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Zhu, You, 2023. "Interconnected multilayer networks: Quantifying connectedness among global stock and foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Eduard Mihai Manta & Razvan Gabriel Hapau & Mihaela Gruiescu & Oana Mihaela Vacaru (Boita), 2023. "Exploring the Contagion Effect from Developed to Emerging CEE Financial Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-50, January.
    5. Huang, Jionghao & Chen, Baifan & Xu, Yushi & Xia, Xiaohua, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility transmission among energy commodities and financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: A Novel TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Zhang, Wenting & He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "Volatility spillover and investment strategies among sustainability-related financial indexes: Evidence from the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness and DCC-GARCH t-copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Liu, Min & Guo, Tongji & Ping, Weiying & Luo, Liangqing, 2023. "Sustainability and stability: Will ESG investment reduce the return and volatility spillover effects across the Chinese financial market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Sevillano, María Caridad & Jareño, Francisco & López, Raquel & Esparcia, Carlos, 2024. "Connectedness between oil price shocks and US sector returns: Evidence from TVP-VAR and wavelet decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Zaghum Umar & Oluwasegun Babatunde Adekoya & Mariya Gubareva & Sabri Boubaker, 2024. "Returns and volatility connectedness among the Eurozone equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3103-3122, July.
    11. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Information connectedness of international crude oil futures: Evidence from SC, WTI, and Brent," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark & Kamal, Khaled Bin, 2022. "Do gold, oil, equities, and currencies hedge economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks during covid crisis?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. JEBABLI, Ikram & KOUAISSAH, Noureddine & AROURI, Mohamed, 2022. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Energy Markets during Crises: A Comparative Assessment between the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    15. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2023. "Extreme risk contagion between international crude oil and China's energy-intensive sectors: New evidence from quantile Granger causality and spillover methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    16. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Eric Martial Etoundi Atenga & Mbodja Mougoué, 2021. "Return and volatility spillovers to African equity markets and their determinants," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 883-918, August.
    18. Ahonen, Elena & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet & Larkin, Charles, 2022. "Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    19. Guo, Xiaochun & Lu, Fengbin & Wei, Yunjie, 2021. "Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Manel, Youssef & Riaz, Yasir & Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between emerging markets and US debt throughout the pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:poicbe:v:18:y:2024:i:1:p:3143-3166:n:1043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.