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A Bayesian Approach to Population Estimation with Administrative Data

Author

Listed:
  • Bryant John R.

    (Statistics New Zealand – Population Statistics, Dollan House Private Bag 4741, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.)

  • Graham Patrick

    (Statistics New Zealand, Statistical Methods, Dollan House Private Bag 4741, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand)

Abstract

The article describes a Bayesian approach to deriving population estimates from multiple administrative data sources. Coverage rates play an important role in the approach: identifying anomalies in coverage rates is a key step in the model-building process, and data sources receive more weight within the model if their coverage rates are more consistent. Random variation in population processes and measurement processes is dealt with naturally within the model, and all outputs come with measures of uncertainty. The model is applied to the problem of estimating regional populations in New Zealand. The New Zealand example illustrates the continuing importance of coverage surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryant John R. & Graham Patrick, 2015. "A Bayesian Approach to Population Estimation with Administrative Data," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 31(3), pages 475-487, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:31:y:2015:i:3:p:475-487:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/jos-2015-0028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stone, Richard, 1997. "The Accounts of Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(6), pages 17-29, December.
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