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Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run

Author

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  • Szomolányi Karol

    (Department of Operations Research and Econometrics, University of Economics Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Lukáčik Martin

    (Department of Operations Research and Econometrics, University of Economics Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Lukáčiková Adriana

    (Department of Operations Research and Econometrics, University of Economics Bratislava, Slovakia)

Abstract

The terms-of-trade shocks are not main source of business cycles in three post-communist countries (i.e., Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia). The zero or negative reactions of the trade balance in terms-of-trade positive shocks in the countries exhibit the Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect, according to which the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler positive effect on terms-of-trade indicates that the smaller the trade balance, the more persistent the terms-of-trade shock is. The conclusions come from the structural vector autoregressive analysis of the cyclical components of terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption, and investment in three post-communist countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Szomolányi Karol & Lukáčik Martin & Lukáčiková Adriana, 2017. "Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 63(1), pages 3-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ngooec:v:63:y:2017:i:1:p:3-13:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/ngoe-2017-0001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
    2. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    4. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; terms-of-trade; business cycle; Slovak economy; Czech economy; Croatian economy; trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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