IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/jsesro/v12y2023i1p25-45n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Determinants of Birth Rate in Romania. A Spatial Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Cimpoeru Smaranda

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Pisică Andrei

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to determine the factors influencing the birth rate in Romania, by incorporating explicitly the spatial factor in the proposed models. The study is justified by the dramatic fall of the birth rate over the past three decades. With a negative natural population growth and an increasing number of emigrants, the population will become older and there will be a few million less in the next decades. To achieve the objective, various spatial modelling methods were used, such as Spatial AutoRegressive Model (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a spatial panel data model. The data granularity is at the county level for the year 2020. Results show that GDP per capita and the amount of financial support received by families for raising a child have a significant effect on the birth rate. Using a spatial approach for modelling the birth rate, we reveal demographic problems that may exist in certain areas and identify the regions that would require a policy to stimulate birth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Cimpoeru Smaranda & Pisică Andrei, 2023. "Economic Determinants of Birth Rate in Romania. A Spatial Analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 25-45, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jsesro:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:25-45:n:5
    DOI: 10.2478/jses-2023-0002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/jses-2023-0002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/jses-2023-0002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Spatial Panel Data Models," SpringerBriefs in Regional Science, in: Spatial Econometrics, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 37-93, Springer.
    2. Laura Barbieri, 2013. "Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1701-1716, August.
    3. Ion Stancu & Dragoş Haşeganu & Alexandra Darmaz-Guzun, 2019. "Proiecții privind sustenabilitatea sistemului de pensii în România," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 50-67, June.
    4. LeSage, James P., 1997. "Regression Analysis of Spatial Data," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-12.
    5. Gregory, Paul R & Campbell, John M & Cheng, Benjamin S, 1972. "A Simultaneous Equation Model of Birth Rates in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(4), pages 374-380, November.
    6. Beunen, Raoul & Meijer, Marlies & de Vries, Jasper, 2020. "Planning strategies for dealing with population decline: Experiences from the Netherlands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gallaher, Adam & Graziano, Marcello & Fiaschetti, Maurizio, 2021. "Legacy and shockwaves: A spatial analysis of strengthening resilience of the power grid in Connecticut," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Shuai Shi & Kathy Pain, 2020. "Investigating China’s Mid-Yangtze River economic growth region using a spatial network growth model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(14), pages 2973-2993, November.
    3. Žana Jurjević & Bojan Matkovski & Danilo Đokić & Stanislav Zekić, 2024. "A Methodological Framework for Evaluation of Rural Settlements: Rural Index of Serbia," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    4. David Brasington & Don Haurin, 2005. "Capitalization of Parent, School, and Peer Group Components of School Quality into House Price," Departmental Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    5. Benjamin Cheng & Robert Hsu & Qiyu Chu, 1997. "The causality between fertility and female labour force participation in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 113-116.
    6. Muriuki, James & Hudson, Darren & Fuad, Syed & March, Raymond J. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2023. "Spillover effect of violent conflicts on food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Shirvani Dastgerdi, Ahmadreza & Sargolini, Massimo & Broussard Allred, Shorna & Chatrchyan, Allison Morrill & Drescher, Michael & DeGeer, Christopher, 2022. "Climate change risk reduction in cultural landscapes: Insights from Cinque Terre and Waterloo," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Ul-Durar, Shajara & De Sisto, Marco & Arshed, Noman & Naveed, Shabana & Farooqi, Madiha Rehman, 2024. "FinTech adoption in achieving ecologically sustainable mineral management in Asian OBOR countries – A cross-section and time autoregressive robust analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Wang, Chao & Zhang, Xinyi & Ghadimi, Pezhman & Liu, Qian & Lim, Ming K. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "The impact of regional financial development on economic growth in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: A spatial econometric analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 635-648.
    10. Rendao Ye & Yue Qi & Wenyan Zhu, 2023. "Impact of Agricultural Industrial Agglomeration on Agricultural Environmental Efficiency in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-18, July.
    11. Skevas, Ioannis, 2020. "Inference in the spatial autoregressive efficiency model with an application to Dutch dairy farms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 356-364.
    12. Iacopo Odoardi & Donatella Furia & Piera Cascioli, 2021. "Can social support compensate for missing family support? An examination of dropout rates in Italy," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 121-139, February.
    13. Bernd Jost, 2012. "Price Dispersion, Search Costs and Spatial Competition: Evidence from the Austrian Retail Gasoline Market," NEURUS papers neurusp166, NEURUS - Network of European and US Regional and Urban Studies.
    14. Cheng, Muxi & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fei, Chengcheng, 2021. "Climate Change Effects on the U.S. Hog production," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313966, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Mewes, Lars & Broekel, Tom, 2022. "Technological complexity and economic growth of regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    16. Zhichun Yu & Yanjiao Wan, 2023. "Can the Growth of the Digital Economy Be Beneficial for Urban Decarbonization? A Study from Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Matthew J. Higgins & Donald J. Lacombe & Briana S. Stenard & Andrew T. Young, 2021. "Evaluating the effects of Small Business Administration lending on growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 23-45, June.
    18. Ana Poças & Elias Soukiazis, 2013. "Explaining the interrelations between health, education and standards of living in Portugal. A simultaneous equation approach," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 167-187.
    19. Mohapatra, Souryabrata & Wen, Le & Sharp, Basil & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu, 2024. "Unveiling the spatial dynamics of climate impact on rice yield in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 922-945.
    20. Fusco, Elisa & Allegrini, Veronica, 2020. "The role of spatial interdependence in local government cost efficiency: An application to waste Italian sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    birth rate; population decline; spatial regression models; spatial panel models; geographically weighted regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:jsesro:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:25-45:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.