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Demographic dividend in Saudi Arabia: From age structural changes to economic gains

Author

Listed:
  • Al-Khraif Rshood M.

    (Center for Population Studies King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

  • Salam Asharaf Abdul

    (Center for Population Studies, King Saud University Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

  • Rashid Mohd Fadzil Abdul

    (Department of Built Environment Studies and Technology Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying Universiti Teknologi MARA, Perak Branch, Malaysia)

Abstract

Aim/purpose – The demographic dividend, defined as the proportion of working age to the rest of the population, is an opportunity seen mainly in developing countries, resulting from demographic transition. Efforts to maximize gains from it are crucial, especially for the Arabian Gulf states, where labor force demands are met at the danger of native youth unemployment that leads to issues of human resources utilization. This research on Saudi Arabian demographic dividend aims at tracking changes in the age structure, labor force participation, and prospects leading to economic gains. Design/methodology/approach – Data from various sources such as censuses (1974, 1992, 2004, and 2010), national labor force surveys 1999-2017 and United Nations (UN) Population Prospects are compiled and statistically analyzed with a historical approach for calculations of age distribution, median age, and labor force participation adopting standard procedures. Findings – An age structural transition occurred: percentage of population 15-64 years increased from 47.2% to 67.3%, increasing the dividend from 89.6% to 205.5%. This influenced the labor force’s sectoral distribution, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per working age population. Research implications/limitations – The dividend’s first phase, since 2000, is expected to last until 2050, followed by the second dividend which may last longer. Along with the dividend, there shall be policies executed to reap the benefits, including scientifically planned recruitment of potential candidates in various professions, both in public and private sectors. Originality/value/contribution – This research concerns a population, which is unexplored in detail, especially at a macro level. Thus, such an in-depth analysis seeks importance in revealing special demographic dimensions to a wider international audience. There are no such studies conducted in Saudi Arabia, with a national perspective helpful for revamping efforts to boost labor force reforms and to make maximum gain during the short-lived demographic dividend period.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Khraif Rshood M. & Salam Asharaf Abdul & Rashid Mohd Fadzil Abdul, 2022. "Demographic dividend in Saudi Arabia: From age structural changes to economic gains," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 19-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:44:y:2022:i:1:p:19-37:n:16
    DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisenda Rentería & Guadalupe Souto & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Concepció Patxot, 2016. "The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 651-671, December.
    2. Gemma Abío & Concepció Patxot & Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2017. "The welfare state and demographic dividends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(48), pages 1453-1490.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic transition; accounting effect; age-sex structure; labor force; median age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B55 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Social Economics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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